Bellator tops 100,000 buys in first PPV entry

For most the expected buy rate for Bellator’s first PPV was somewhere between 35-50,000, with anything over that being considered a pretty big win all around. The idea of pulling anywhere near 100,000 was largely thought of as a pipe dream. Something that only the WEC and Affliction had been able to come close to, and those companies were buoyed by rosters of top talent fighting in their prime (or close to it).  The fact that Bellator was able to achieve the numbers they did, with several names viewed as well past their prime, and without their lightweight champion is, frankly, astounding. MMA Fighting had the confirmation of Sherdog’s report.

Rebney issued this statement to fighting:

“My excitement with this event is based on it having been entertaining and a great ‘event’,” Bellator CEO Bjorn Rebney told MMA Fighting. “And, it’s the fan and media response to what we created a couple Saturday’s back that’s kept that excitement going. I won’t be discussing specific PPV buy rates, but what I can say is that with one of our main events falling out just seven days before our first PPV, a six figure plus buy rate is a good starting point. But, it’s just that, a starting point. My focus is to continue working with our partners at Spike to create the type of big event experience that we created on the 17th.”

It’s much, much harder to dismiss plans for more PPVs in Bellator’s immediate future after this kind of return. These numbers are sky high for a non Zuffa MMA promotion and the complete surprise at their high mark probably has several undercurrents at the root. For one, MMA media as a whole has probably severely undervalued the idea of a Bellator fanbase that would take an active interest in their product. This also shows the idea of just how strangely name value can still contribute to PPV buys. There may be a large contingent of fans out there that will still just show up for Rampage and Tito, no matter the context. And of course, last of all, there was a lot of curiosity; Hardcore MMA fans who wanted to see just what a rival promotion’s PPV might look like in the current market.

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Bellators sticky new contracts

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Kid Nate is joined by MMA journalists John S. Nash and Brian D’Souza to talk about Bellator’s sticky new contracts.

Alvarez wants ‘easier’ fight with Will Brooks

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Bellator Lightweight champion, Eddie Alvarez says he wants the easier fight with Will Brooks as his last fight for the promotion.

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Bellators sticky new contracts Alvarez wants ‘easier’ fight with Will Brooks

It’s impossible to tell if these numbers could be replicated. We know that Alvarez has his sights set on a future PPV card with Bellator, and that he’s interested in fighting Will Brooks. Would Bellator be able to draw enough other names to the card to get a decent buy rate? Do they have the core brand fanbase to buy it regardless? Only time will tell.

Michael Bisping looking for a stand up battle with Cung Le

Michael Bisping has had a rough go of it, as of late. A bad loss to Vitor Belfort turned into a bad win over Alan Belcher (although a fight that Bisping had in hand before it’s eye poke inflicted ending). Bisping followed that up with a year long layoff due to a torn retina and the surgery required to repair it, only to come back and look completely flat in a one sided loss to Tim Kennedy. Now it sounds like he’s looking to bounce back from a rough return to the cage. He spoke to Ariel Helwani on Episode 231 of the MMA Hour about his recent wedding, his fight with Tim Kennedy, and his upcoming bout with Cung Le.

Bisping was a bit dismissive of Kennedy’s win, saying “He didn’t try for much else apart from holding me down for dear life.” And saw his upcoming fight in juxtaposition to what he felt was Kennedy’s performance (transcription via Luke Thomas):

“No, Cung Le isn’t taking me down and I won’t take him down. This fight has fireworks written all over it and that’s why I’m excited for the match up. It’ll be a great striking battle.

“I’m really looking forward to main eventing in China and I’m going to give people what they paid to see,” he went on. “I feel like I didn’t live up to my words last time.”
…
“I’ve got a point to prove: a point to prove to myself and the paying public, that you should still watch my fights, that I’m still a contender. But that all starts with Cung Le,” Bisping said. “Apologies for the last fight. I was trying my best, but only one of us wanted to fight and that was me. The other guy didn’t engage.”

Bisping went on to proclaim that “his back is against the wall,” and that he “doesn’t intend to make it two losses in a row.” Cung Le feels like the right fight for Bisping right now. Another long time vet who has quite a bit of name value remaining in the sport, but isn’t quite at his competitive peak anymore. Bisping still seems to be aiming for a title shot, but after trading wins and losses for the past couple of years it’s hard to think that anything other than a very long win streak sees him in contention again.

Welcome to the UFC Rodrigo Monstro

It’s that time of year again, spring has past. The the world is creeping into the summer months, and the UFC is out harvesting another crop of Jungle Fight champions. Just last week, they signed lightweight champ Thiago dos Santos. Now, following an undisclosed injury to Claudio Silva, Combate reports that the UFC has picked up Jungle Fight welterweight champion Rodrigo Goiana de Lima, or Rodrigo “Monstro” as he is more regularly known. Monstro will be facing off against a surging Neil Magny at Fight Night Auckland on June 28th.

Who is Rodrigo Goiana de Lima?

The current Jungle Fight welterweight champion, 22-year old Rodrigo “Monstro” will bring with him an 8-1-1 record with him to the UFC. While he’s listed as training under a variety of lesser known camps, the most notable alignment for his training comes through Team Trator and his brother, UFC lightweight Michel “Trator” Prazeres. A quick skim through Monstro’s record shows a mix of good, bad, and ugly competition. Much of his early fights were against debuting and raw fighters, and his recent competition has been not bad (but hardly exciting). However, dotted in his 10 pro fights are some quality opponents, and his win over Zozimar Oliveira Silva Jr. and a draw against John Macapa suggest he’s capable of competing with solid talent.

What you should expect:

Monstro is not a pretty fighter. When standing he tends to swing wild with clubbing strikes that I’d hesitate to call “hooks.” He often gets himself off balance when throwing in combination and isn’t particularly hard to hit in return. He has some nice kicks, that he’s capable of throwing with power, but striking is not his strength. Really, when you get down to it, strength is his strength. That, and a pretty nasty BJJ scrambling game. Monstro doesn’t have the greatest takedown game in the world, but when the fight hits the mat he’s very adept at using his massive upper body strength to initiate scrambles where he excels at finding submissions in transition. Couple that with some very decent ground and pound, and de Lima has a lot of potential for growth.

What this means for his debut:

Probably not much. Potential is great, but Rodrigo Goiana de Lima is a very unrefined product. If he had a really great takedown offense I’d probably feel better about his chances, as Magny isn’t exactly a world class wrestler. But, Magny is really coming into his own as a fighter right now. He’s fast and accurate on his feet, his kickboxing is technical and sharp, and unless he just goes in and decides he wants to try and out grapple Monstro, he should have a pretty clear path to victory in this fight.

To get us better acquainted, here’s de Lima’s last fight against Gabriel Toussaint:

Wanderlei Silva off UFC 175, Chael Sonnen to fight Vitor Belfort

Things just got surreal in here. After months of prodding and taunting by Chael Sonnen, Wanderlei Silva appears to have proven “The American Gangster” right in the end and has been removed from UFC 175. Combate reports that failure to comply with licensing regulations, by way of a missed pre-fight medical exams, were the reason from Silva’s removal from the card. It’s almost too strange to be believed, but in Silva’s place, and on the same card as the middleweight champion Chris Weidman who he was originally scheduled to face, Vitor Belfort has apparently been booked to face Chael Sonnen.

Sonnen will come in to the bout seven months removed from a shellacking at the hands of Rashad Evans. In the interim he’s coached a season of TUF Brazil, and had already teased a drop to middleweight. His fight with Belfort will remain a light heavyweight bout, at least according to initial reports. Pre-taping TUF Brazil, and all throughout the shows air time, Sonnen had claimed that Wanderlei would never actually step in the cage with him. What seemed to be nothing more than his typical bluster appears to have been right on the money, if reports of Wanderlei skipping medical exams are true.

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White: Vitor’s drug test result is ‘irrelevant’

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Dana White talks to the media at UFC 173’s pre-fight press conference and gives his thoughts on the controversy surrounding Vitor Belfort.

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For Vitor Belfort, this fight announcement is merely the latest chapter in his increasingly surreal saga. Following his win over Dan Henderson, Belfort was all lined up to be the next middleweight challenger. The sudden imposition of anti-TRT regulations (and whispers about a potentially failed drug test) scuppered his chance to fight Weidman at UFC 173. Since then he’s been in the news, demanding to replace Lyoto Machida at UFC 175, and denying that his last Nevada drug test was anything worth mentioning. While he’s not getting the title shot he wanted, Combate reports that he has been cleared to fight in Nevada and will have no trouble being licensed against Sonnen.

Included in Combate’s report was the news that in light of Wanderlei’s actions, the UFC may be considering termination of his contract. Bloody Elbow will be sure to keep you updated with more information as it becomes available.

UFC 175 takes place on July 5th in Las Vegas, Nevada. Here’s a look at the card:

Chris Weidman vs. Lyoto Machida (middleweight title fight)
Ronda Rousey vs. Alexis Davis (bantamweight title fight)
Vitor Belfort vs. Chael Sonnen
Alex Caceres vs. Urijah Faber
Matt Mitrione vs. Stefan Struve
Uriah Hall vs. Thiago Santos
Ildemar Alcantara vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Guilherme Vasconcelos vs. Luke Zachrich
Chris Camozzi vs. Bruno Santos
Rob Font vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade

Welcome to the UFC Alves and Alexandre Jr.

There are so many TUF seasons these days, that you really can’t be blamed for not keeping up with them all. TUF 19 may still be in full swing and TUF Latino America and TUF 20 may be in in production right now, but TUF Brazil 3 has just wrapped up. And, as with the end of every TUF season, that means we have season finalists and potential TUF tournament champions. I’m going to be covering the two middleweight finalists here, as they gear up for their fight on this weekend’s card in Sao Paulo Brazil. Team Sonnen teammates Warlley Alves and Marcio Alexandre Jr. Face off to find out who will be the next TUF Brazil champion.

Who is Warlley Alves?

If you followed Patrick Wyman’s Search for Future UFC Champions series Warlley Alves will be a name familiar to you. He just barely missed the top 25 cut, and frankly a lot of people were surprised to hear that he’d agreed to take a spot on TUF as his way into the UFC. Essentially, he’s been pegged as the odds on favorite from the start. The 23-year old X-Gym product trains alongside Erick Silva, Jacare Souza, and Alan Patrick among many other notables. He’ll be making his way to the UFC with an unblemished 6-0 record, obtained mostly through Brazil’s Jungle Fight organization. His level of competition hasn’t been the best so far, a lot of win/loss regional vets. Solid experience for someone early in their career, but no strong tests.

What you should expect:

Alves is really a bright talent, outside of a tough opening round bout on TUF, against his best opponent to date in Wendell Oliveira Marques (a fight I really still don’t understand on any level) he’s been blowing away his fellow TUF cast members. He strikes well from the outside, with a more kick heavy arsenal. He can be pushed around a bit, because he’s not much of a puncher at range, but he shows signs of being a terrific infighter with brutal clinch knees and a fast powerful, striking game. He also has a great transition submission offense, cinching up tight chokes in scrambles. This means that he occasionally puts himself in some bad grappling positions, but seems to be adept enough at continuing to scramble both when on the bottom and with a fighter on his back. It will be interesting to see him face someone who can challenge him at range and keep him there, as his outside striking is probably his biggest weakness, both offensively and defensively.

Who is Marcio Alexandre Jr.?

25-year old Mario “Lyoto” Alexandre, is a Karate stylist, training out of Team Tavares under the tutelage of Thiago Tavares and alongside UFC lightweight Ivan Jorge. He comes from a family of Karatekas, and has a lot of tournament experience in the art. He’ll enter the UFC with a 12-0 undefeated record with all wins by stoppage and eleven in the first round and eleven by TKO. That said, his level of competition is exceptionally poor, and given that many of his fights were promoted by Tavares Combat League, his match making is pretty highly questionable. The fact that he’s been taken to split decisions in two of his three TUF fights is probably a better example of his talent.

What you should expect:

While his kicks are fast and hard on the outside, comparisons to his moniker, “Lyoto” end pretty quick. Alexandre Jr. fights a pretty cautious fight at range, circling, kicking, and generally staying on is back foot. This means that he’s open to getting bullied against the fence and swarmed by aggressive fighters. When he wants to close distance, he does so behind a flurry of punches, often leading with his head up and arms down. He does throw a nice straight left on closing opponents on occasion, but his kick variety is really his bread and butter at range. Give him lots of space and time and he can get something going. He’s shown some flashes of decent wrestling and grappling as well, and will often look to clinch and throw opponents to work on his grappling, but neither appear to be skills that set him apart, simply not liabilities.

What this means for their debut:

Most likely it means that “Lyoto” is merely the latest victem of the the Warlley Alves wrecking ball. Alexandre Jr’s success is predicated on getting lots of space and time to work against predictable opponents. Alves will allow him none of that. He’s a better infighter than Alexandre, and a reasonably equivalent range fighter. And thus far Alves has shown a much more complete ground game. The TUF title should be his to lose.

To get us better acquainted, here is Alves’ recent bout against Mike Jackson:

And Marcio Alexandre’s recent bout against Felipe Rosa from Tavares Combat 5:

Satoshi Ishii announces fight with Mirko Cro Cop on August 23rd

If there’s one big “name” heavyweight operating outside the bounds of a major MMA promotion in today’s landscape it’s Satoshi Ishii. An Olympic gold medal Judoka (no, not Ronda Rousey) for Japan, Ishii has been tabbed for stardom in MMA since his first bouts. In that way that only Japanese MMA seems able or willing to do, this means that he’s been fighting the best available opposition right out of the gate; sink or swim from day one. At times he’s sunk, and sunk hard. Lately, however, Ishii has been on something of a tear; beating a host of former UFC vets and establishing an eight fight winstreak over decent competition, without ever setting foot in the octagon. In today’s landscape, that’s practically unheard of.

Now, it looks like that streak will continue, as Ishii is set to take on Mirko Filipovic at an Inoki Genome Federation event on August 23rd. Ishii announced the booking via Twitter.

I’m going to fight against Mirko Crocop on August 23ed. 8月23日にミルコ クロコップ選手と試合が決まりました。 頑張ります。

— Satoshi Ishii | 石井 慧 (@SatoshiIshii) May 21, 2014

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For Filipovic this will represent his first return to MMA after a loss to current UFC heavyweight Oleksiy Oliynyk at Legend Fight Show last November. The “Croatian Cop” is 1-3 since a loss to Frank Mir in late 2010, but still one of the biggest name opponents in heavyweight MMA, not currently fighting in a major promotion. Instead he’s returned to kickboxing, where he won a much diminished version of the K-1 World Grand Prix in 2013. Between now and his match with Ishii, Filipovic is scheduled to fight on the undercard of the Glory 17 PPV, although the withdrawl of Sergei Kharitonov has left him without an opponent as of yet.

For Ishii, this will look to be his ninth straight MMA victory over an opponent with more name value than competitive form. Although, and to his credit, Cro Cop’s time as a top heavyweight was much, much more recent than opponents like Jeff Monson, Pedro Rizzo, or Tim Sylvia. A win here for Ishii won’t set the world alight, but it does increase the chorus from die hard fans that wonder just when the UFC will make a strong offer for one of the world’s better fighters over 205 lbs. Or, whether Ishii is fated to be the Mamed Khalidov of the next generation.

Hindsight: UFC 173 in retrospect

That was a hell of a thing. At the end of last week’s hindsight, I said I’d be in complete shock if I were talking about T.J. Dillashaw: UFC Champion. Well, here I am, and needless to say, I’m shocked. There’s just so much to talk about from a night of fights that delivered great highs, terrific lows, and the kinds of narrative shifts that could effect the MMA for years to come. I’m not saying that Dillashaw has come back from the future to change the course of history, but he looks like a whole new breed of fighter out there.

Disclaimer Time: I’m sure there are an insufferable few of you out there that picked Dillashaw to win this fight. That put money on it, and made out like bandits. But, if you tell me that you did it because you really, honestly thought that he was likely to beat Barao… You’ll have to excuse me if I don’t believe you. I can see a lot of people getting buried on their Lawler, Cormier, Barao parlay there, which sucks and is a fine display of why I continue to not be a betting man. All of which means: Take this article with a grain of salt. I’ll provide odds, I’ll talk about picks, and I’ll try and show that I’ve learned something from the utterly improbable, but I can’t pretend that I’m going to give any great gambling advice for the future. As always I’ll be using BestFightOdds for the numbers and taking the mode for each fighter.

Aaron Phillips (+130) vs. Sam Sicilia (-150) (I picked Sicilia, I was right)

• After talking about Aaron Phillips 5-0 record a bunch immediately post fight, I remembered that he’s actually 8-0 (8-1 now). Still, at 24 and with only a few years and fights under his belt he’s a couple years, developmentally, away from being a complete fighter. As expected, his biggest problem is volume striking. Sicilia gave him a lot of opportunity to work at range, and he wasn’t able to consistently take advantage.
• It was good to see Sicilia adjust his game a bit after eating some hard body kicks early. Phillips obviously wilted him with shots to the liver, but he toughed out the pain and got back to his strengths which are clinch brawling and ground and pound.
• That said, this was a fight tailor made for Sicilia to dominate. Phillips low output standup style was made for Sicilia to wade in on and bully him. And he just barely got that done. By the end he looked dominant, but for much of the fight he looked entirely unimproved from past performances and this win doesn’t suggest great things for his ability to beat more established featherweights.

Li JingLiang (+115) vs. David Michaud (-135) (I picked Michaud, I was wrong)

• This fight leaves me a bit at odds in terms of Li’s future. Michaud felt like an opponent tailor made to test him, but still get him a quality win… And I still picked Michaud, because I’d never seen Li strike with any sort of consistency or voracity. And that ended up being the difference maker. Li showed that he can outstrike the low end of the welterweight division. I suppose that should make me higher on him.
• But, and this is a major but. Li also entirely failed to control the grappling (which has always been his strongest skill) against an undersized welterweight with mediocre grappling skills who was absolutely willing to engage him in that area. If Li can’t be a solid grappler in the UFC, I can’t see his striking alone getting him past many other fighters.
• I’m assuming that Michaud will drop down to 155 after this loss. He’d been competing at 160 regionally and while he’s a little fireplug of muscle, lightweight probably fits him better. The biggest issue for him is going to be range striking, where he’s still inactive, and very very hittable.

Anthony Njokuani (-265) vs. Vinc Pichel (+220) (I picked Njokuani, I was wrong)

• It’s hard not to feel like the two early fouls really threw Njokuani off his stride in this fight. It’s very possible that they got him thinking and pausing so much that he never really had an opportunity to be competitive in the way he should have. That’s an incredibly tough way  to drop a fight and a continuing indictment on the lack of ability for refs to properly punish fouls.
• That said, by the time the third round hit, it was also pretty clear that Pichel had “solved” Njokuani. Whether it’s because he’d just tired him out too much early for Njokuani to stay with a stick and move gameplan, or if it’s because Njokuani just isn’t a stick and move fighter, preferring to stand and trade in the pocket. Pichel’s chaining of takedowns, transitioning between angles and setups, and raw strength really showed that he could be a threat to a lot of guys with just his wrestling chops.
• And for Njokuani, fouls or no, this fight was one he easily should have won. Pichel is about as one dimensional a fighter as the UFC gets and Njokuani is an old hand as a Zuffa lightweight. If he can’t handle a one trick poney, even a fairly talented one, then that’s a pretty strong sign that he’s not going to be making his way up the ranks anytime soon.

Mitch Clarke (+350) vs. Al Iaquinta (-450) (I picked Iaquinta, I was wrong)

•  I realize that Al Iaquinta isn’t that old (he’s only 27), and that he’s only been around for 5 years. Heck, he even missed one of those years due to a knee injury. But, with his talent, this loss should never have happened. Iaquinta keeps putting himself in terrible positions, most particularly with his grappling, but in different ways in every fight. And this loss just felt like the natural culmination of past mistakes.
• If I had to make a guess right now, I’d say we’re seeing Clarke begin to peak as a fighter. He hasn’t fought much lately, only one bout in each of the last three years, so his record is sitting at a fairly thin 11-2, 7 years into his career. Hopefully he can stay healthy and get some more cage time, because something is really clicking right now.
• That said, it’s hard to imagine the next step for Clarke. He’s gotten a couple of matchups against guys who appeared to be checked out enough that they just didn’t give him or his grappling any respect at all. Clarke’s tough and he stays active in all positions, but it’s hard to see how far up the ranks that could carry him, even after a pretty decent upset win.

Chico Camus (+280) vs. Chris Holdsworth (-360) (I picked Holdsworth, I was right)

• Chris Holdsworth has all the hallmarks of being a pretty legit future talent in the bantamweight division, except that he can’t strike a lick. This fight was a pretty clear indictment of him as another in the long run of big, rangy MMA fighters who get potshotted by much shorter opponents on the outside. His wrestling and grappling will get him by a lot of guys in a thin division, but without striking he’ll hit a hard wall eventually.
• I can’t help but wonder if Chico Camus is going to drop down to flyweight after this loss. He’s teased the idea a bit, in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this spurred him to it. The real problem may be that he’s an undersized fighter who’s best off at range, and flyweight has no lack of guys who will crowd him.
• Holdsworth could be very close to entering Kelvin Gastelum territory, where the UFC will throw him at a top 15 fighter without much warning.  Bantamweight is thin enough that it may feel like sense to do so, but it could also mean that he’s headed for a bad loss early in his career. 

Katsunori Kikuno (+265) vs. Tony Ferguson (-350) (I picked Ferguson, I was right)

• I don’t know if this could be considered some kind of wakeup call for Kikuno, after all he’s had 30 fights over the past 9 years, if he had anything to learn in MMA about his style, it’s hard to think he hasn’t at least been given a lesson before. But this was his first KO loss. Maybe he’ll take something out of that and adapt, or maybe this is just what fans needed to see to know that sooner or later defense matters.
• Ferguson is another of the guys from TUF’s awkward, middle years, that actually ended up being a pretty decent fighter. He boxes well, has shown flashes of a nice submission game, and has enough power to be considered a danger on the feet. This was a solid, if expect-able, win in his progression.
• Unfortunately, it’s hard to see him in anything other than a holding pattern going forward. Lightweight is neck deep in guys in his position right now, even former TUF winners. So, I’d expect him to have to take another mid to low tier fights before he gets any dramatic steps up in competition. 

Michael Chiesa (-155) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+130) (I picked Chiesa, I was right)

• Speaking of other guys in that exact same position. Michael Chiesa continues to bounce back really nicely from his first career loss against Jorge Masvidal last year, with a solid win over a decent, but not great lightweight fighter. Next step will probably be another decent but not great lightweight fighter… or maybe Tony Ferguson.
• It’s no surprise that Francisco Trinaldo hasn’t developed much in the UFC. While he’s only had 18 pro fights, he’s already 35 and we’re probably seeing him at his best. He’s strong, his standup is alright, and his ground game is alright (when he’s on top) but he’s got a lot of holes that aggressive fighters can exploit (and especially aggressive wrestlers) and it’s hard to see him patching those up soon.
• Chiesa has shown consistent development, even his fight against Masvidal was surprising for his early success, but he needs to develop more striking into his skill set somehow. For the brief periods his fight with Trinaldo was upright, Chiesa looked pretty lost. I’m not saying he needs to be a great kickboxer, but more weapons to close distance and stay defensively sound are a must down the road. 

James Krause (+182) vs. Jamie Varner (-215) (I picked Varner, I was wrong)

• This wasn’t really much of an actual fight, so it’s hard to draw much in the way of conclusion from it. Varner came out, got hurt and was competitive on one leg for a round. If there’s anything to take away, it’s that he’s a tough bastard and that Krause was either too shocked or not skilled enough to put him away, even on one wheel.
• Since there’s not a lot to take away, let’s talk reffing. We see refs stop fights to check cuts all the time, is it really that much harder to stop a fight to check a guys obviously broken leg? I realize that Varner did his best to hide it and fight through it, but when the ref saw his foot roll around like a sock full of change, he should have had a doctor in there to see if Varner could go on. The fact that Varner had to do it himself at the end of the round is a statement to his realism and the general lack of it in MMA.
• Krause has now had a thoroughly weird UFC career. Two losses to the very elite of competition in the WEC saw him given an early exit. A long win streak brought him back for a pretty decent upset against Sam Stout, and now it’s just all been weirdness. I’m still not terribly sure where he is in the lightweight division, so it’s going to be very hard to pick him going forward.

Takeya Mizugaki (-165) vs. Francisco Rivera (+135) (I picked Mizugaki, I was right)

• Francisco Rivera very likely is what he is as a fighter, and that’s exciting, but not technical enough to beat the best. It’s hard to hurt very good fighters when you can’t rely on your technique to continually land strikes. He throws a nice variety and he throws it with power, but the accuracy and the consistency just isn’t there.
• Listening to Joe Rogan wonder why Rivera “didn’t look like the same fighter who fought George Roop” was all kinds of depressing from an analysis standpoint. The idea that George Roop is every bit as talented as one of the top 5 fighters in the bantamweight division and the Rivera should thus be able to find as much success, is really at the heart of the UFC’s “all fighters are the same” mantra. And it suggests that Rogan honestly sees that mantra as truth.
• Some people are bringing up the idea of Mizugaki being in the title picture, and as a huge fan of his, I’d love to see it. But, the reality is that he’s got to be last in line right now. Assuncao makes the most sense because of his recent win, and the shot is Cruz’s for the taking if he wants it. After that, Barao could very well be in position to try for a rematch. Mizugaki is probably not getting a sniff at the belt this year, unless there’s some major injury trouble. 

Jake Ellenberger (+160) vs. Robbie Lawler (-175) (I picked Lawler, I was right)

• Some people have said that too much of Ellenberger’s offense got overlooked in the commentary for this fight. I can understand that. Ellenberger really did have his moments in every round. But, there was just an aura coming of Lawler in the cage at UFC 173 and it’s almost impossible to imagine ignoring the sense that he was in complete control for the few moments when Ellenberger wrested some of that control from him.
• Ellenger now officially has an output problem and there are two culprits that I could see as probable. The first is cage wear. He’s had almost 40 pro fights in his 8 year career. That’s a ton of wear and tear on a guy who’s only 29. The second possibility is that he’s just not, nor has he ever been a top 5 talent. He’s lost almost every time he’s gotten a chance at the divisional elite, and it just may be that his striking is too mechanical and predictable to work well against the best fighters.
• It’s hard to know what would work best for Lawler right now. On one hand, as has been suggested by others, he’s taken a lot of shots lately and should consider using some time to heal up. But, he’s also very obviously on a roll at the moment and keeping that roll going may be the best possible thing he can do. Lawler looked like he was invincible for 90% of that fight, if he can maintain that it’s hard to argue against him charging right back out there. 

Daniel Cormier (-800) vs. Dan Henderson (+555) (I picked Cormier, I was right)

• This fight really benefited from the Varner vs. Krause fight being the night’s “Ugh” moment. That helped overshadow the fact that there wasn’t really a competitive 20 second stretch in this match. Most notably, when Cormier hulked Hendo to the ground, and then kicked his leg to trip him and drag him to the floor as Hendo got up and tried to scramble away. I expect Cormier’s mom got a call from Hendo’s mom after the fight, to discuss the way her son has been bullying young Henderson, because that was a school yard assault.
• And with that, it feels like Henderson’s time as a relevant top fighter is done. Since his time fighting isn’t, he’ll be drifting off into Rich Franklin territory, where we see him take a few “fun” scraps before eventually drifting out of the scene entirely.
• While Henderson wasn’t competitive for Cormier, this still felt like a bout that really established Cormier’s cred as one of the top three fighters at light heavyweight and a serious contender for Jones’ belt. Cormier asks questions that it’s hard to imagine any fighter being prepared to answer. But I’m really looking forward to watching them try.

Renan Barao (-1000) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+550) (I picked barao, I was wrong)

• So, remember that fight T.J. Dillashaw had against Mike Easton? You know, the one where he used Easton as a mobile heavy bag for three rounds? It turns out, as much as that may have been a further indication that Easton is not an elite bantamweight, it was also a great indication that Dillashaw was something that we as fight fans just haven’t seen before. No one’s to blame for believing that Dillashaw couldn’t do to Barao what he did to Easton, but he did and in hindsight, the indications that he could were there.
• I am racking my brain to think of an MMA striker who looks as capable in his offensive output as T.J. Dillashaw does when striking. Even the great Anderson Silva was 9/10ths a counter fighter. Dillashaw goes after his foes and he does so with such an astounding blend of effective footwork and strikes, that he practically beggers comparison to other fighters.
• It is hard to know what the effect on Renan Barao will be from this loss. I expect he’ll bounce back as more or less his old self, but I also doubt that he can shore up the kind of holes that Dillashaw exposed. Barao has often been hittable early as he tends to stalk foes until he can time their movment and entries and start blasting. Even against Dominick Cruz this type of game could have been effective, because Dominick Cruz doesn’t have a lot of stopping power. But Dillashaw not only flustered him and kept his timing off, but hit him hard enough to create caution where it never used to exist. I’m not sure how Barao solves that problem.

Those are all my collected thoughts from the last weekend of fights. So much of them seem obvious now, but as always, that’s the benefit of hindsight. Until next time, when I just might be talking about Fabio Maldonado’s miraculous upset (probably not) and Gegard Mousasi’s dominant dissection of a striking show (probably), see you then.

Welcome to the UFC Rob Font

There’s nothing like the smell of new fighters in the morning… Okay, that’s simply not true. But, nonetheless, new fighters are what you’re getting. If you go out of your way to smell them, well, that’s your business. The Providence Journal reported on Saturday, that the UFC has signed bantamweight Rob Font to a contract. He’s already been added to the UFC.com roster, so it’s pretty safe to say that his signing has been confirmed. Font is expected to make his debut at UFC 175, where it’s being reported that he’ll take on Douglas Silva de Andrade.

Who is Rob Font?

The current CES featherweight champion, 26-year old Font will drop down to 135 lbs for the first time in his pro career to make his debut in the octagon. He brings with him a 10-1 pro record, fighting out of Mark Dellagrotte’s Team Sityodtong former producers of Marcus Davis and Patrick Cote. It’s a surprisingly decent, if not quite outstanding regional record, highlighted by his win over Bellator fighter Saul Almeida and a loss, in his second career fight, to Dez Green. Outside of those two, he’s fought a lot of decent regional vets and little in the way of cans or too-green competition. It lends a bit of understanding to a decent but not outstanding finishing rate with six stoppages in ten wins, three by submission, three by knockout.

What you should expect:

Font shows good footwork and good kickboxing basics on the outside. He moves well from side to side, throws straight punches and mixes in kicks well. He digs to the body with strikes well, and generally does a surprisingly decent job mixing up his striking entries. He often throws a snapping front kick to keep range, and likes to flurry in with strikes and shoot underneath them, but his wrestling game seems a bit lacking. If he can’t get an opponent down with the initial drive he tends to resort to cage control rather than chaining attempts. His grappling game appears to be more of an extension of his striking. If he can hurt you standing he’ll jump on a submission opportunity, rather than it being something he actively looks for on its own. Even when he does use his takedown game offensively it often appears to be just a way to throw off his opponents rhythm, and he’ll stand out to get the fight back tot he feet.

Otherwise, he’s surprisingly defensively solid, and rarely backs out of exchanges in a straight line, instead slipping out on angles and keeping his hands in decent defensive position, while also moving his head well. He’s shown some flashes of some decent defensive wrestling and ability to scramble to his feet from the bottom as well, which should serve him well at 135.

Update: As an opponent has been announced immediately after publishing, I’ll add a what this means for his debut section:

What this means for his debut:

Douglas Silva de Andrade (or D’Silva as he is known for short) should provide a very stiff test for Font’s debut. D’Silva is a fireplug of muscle and strikes with a varied attack out of both stances. Unfortunately for D’Silva, his lack of a great camp or strong tutoring means that against quality opposition like Font, the numerous cracks in his technique begin to show. He has a lot of defensive holes and trouble finding opponents with his strikes consistently. He could possibly overwhelm Font in the clinch or catch him with a huge bomb, but I think Font’s footwork and defensive movement and polished skills should be enough to keep him ahead for three rounds.

To get us better acquainted, here’s his most recent bout against Tristan Johnson at CES 23:

Jones has yet to sign agreement in announced Gustafsson rematch

While the UFC has announced the bout and the date, they’re dancing around the fact that they haven’t yet got the champion in on the act. It’s been reported that Alexander Gustafsson will get his rematch against Jon Jones on August 30th in Las Vegas, Nevada, most likely at UFC 177. But, Jon Jones has yet to officially agree to the bout. That’s a pretty major hurdle when booking a fight that the champion has been notably reluctant to make the second time over. As the UFC announced on it’s own website “Gustafsson signs on for Jones rematch.” A good sign, but not a great one.

And this isn’t the first time that such plans have backfired for the UFC. Attempts to book Antonio Rogerio Nogueira against Phil Davis and Gilbert Melendez against Khabib Nurmagomedov both turned into somewhat public disasters as Melendez took the opportunity to renegotiate his contract, and Nogueira claimed to still be suffering from injury and was promptly removed from the UFC rankings. Both situations would be cleared down the line, but it was a couple of good examples that announcing the bout before the agreement hasn’t always served the promotion well.

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Pending Jon Jones’ signature, Alexander Gustafsson will get his rematch with the light heavyweight champion this summer in Las Vegas.

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Still, this fight has felt like something of a given since Gustafsson was able to win his bounce-back bout against Jimi Manuwa. Jones breezed past Glover Teixeira and as far as fans are concerned, Jones vs. Gus 2 is a done deal… right? Let’s hope the news in the next few days is good.

Welcome to the UFC Naoyuki Kotani

Sometimes solid veteran fighters slip through the cracks of history. Guys who haven’t lost to anyone except the best competition, and yet somehow have never been particularly well known either. Enter Naoyuki Kotani onto that list as he makes his return to the UFC following a nearly seven year absence. After Naoyuki’s agent, Monte Cox posted the news of the fighter’s return to the UFC, Fight Sport Asia was first on the scene with the announcement of Naoyuki’s matchup, with the report that he will be facing off against TUF Smashes winner Norman Parke at UFC Fight Night Dublin on July 19th.

Who is Naoyuki Kotani?

A Rings, Pride, and UFC vet, the bulk of the 32-year old Naoyuki Kotani’s career has been spent with regional Japanese Promotion Zst! (pronounced “zest,” for anyone who wants to know). What that means is that his record is all over the place with a mix of young prospects, grizzled vets, and of course his fair share of cans. It all culminates into a 33-10-7 record and a 13 fight win streak compiled over the last four years. It’s when you look at Kotani’s losses however, that his record really shows some depth, there’s not a poor fighter to be found. Losses to Jorge Masvidal, Kuniyoshi Hironaka, Koji Oishi, Dennis Siver, Thiago Tavares, Luiz Azeredo, Roger Huerta, Yves Edwards, Marcus Aurelio, and Rich Clementi, when every one of them was in their prime or coming up the ranks is hardly damning. Kotani comes to the UFC not just with a lot of experience, but with a lot of experience against a UFC level of competition. He trains out of Rodeo Style MMA which hs produced some decent  regional talent for Pancrase and ZST.

What you should expect:

Unfortunately, and despite all his experience, Kotani seems to suffer in may of the same ways other classic Japanese MMA fighters have suffered in international competition. He fights at a really low output pace. His range striking is mostly accounted for by a nice variety of front and leg kicks, though none thrown with a lot of authority. He has some decent dirty boxing, but doesn’t go to it nearly as consistently as he could. He does, however, appear to be very strong in the clinch, and somewhat difficult to overpower. When he does go for submissions, he does so with power and authority. Unfortunately his shot and clinch entries aren’t always great, so he’s often an opportunist grappler rather than creating openings for himself. He has shown some decent chained wrestling and has a heavy catch wrestling base, so it’s possible that he can find success with some skills not prevalent in most camps. His fight with Thiago Tavares was surprisingly competitive, in part because of Kotani’s catch grappling setups.

What this means for his debut:

If I only have tape to go on, I’ve got to give the advantages to Parke. He’s much more aggressive in his striking, and much more consistent in his wrestling. He can match Kotani’s clinch game and base strength, and works a lot harder with his dirty boxing and kickboxing. The big difference is, that Kotani has a varied submission offense and Parke doesn’t have much in the way of finishing ability. So Kotani will have three rounds to work with and try and make an exciting submission happen. Parke is the safer bet, but it should make for an interesting fight.

To get us more acquainted, here’s footage of Kotani’s last fight against Yoshihiro Koyama: