One of the more underbooked cards in the year remaining just got a pretty decent fight. The TUF 20 Finale has had little to show for itself so far, beyond the announcement that Yancy Medeiros would be taking on Joe Proctor. Likely, this is because the UFC is expecting to book most of the women competing on this season of TUF for fights on the December 12th card, as a sort of grand end-capper to a season that they’ve been pushing harder than any in quite some time. The show still doesn’t have an announced main event, but the co-main appears to be booked as the UFC has announced that Jeremy Stephens is set to take on Charles Oliveira.
Stephens is coming off a tough unanimous decision loss to Cub Swanson in a five round main event back in June in San Antonio, Texas. The bout saw Stephens dominate early, before breaking his hand late in the first round. Swanson was able to capitalize on Stephens’ loss of momentum and swing the bout in his favor. Prior to that loss, Stephens had been on a three fight win streak at featherweight and generally looks to be in the prime of his career.
If you’re looking for a perfect mirror of Stephens UFC career, look no further than Charles Oliveira. They may not fight with the same style, but both men entered the promotion off a very strong regional career with high expectations of success in the UFC. Instead, success has been mixed. A case of too much too soon has lead Oliveira to a 6-4 (1 NC) record. Strings of strong performances have been met by strings of weak performances. Most recently Oliveira looked incredibly sharp defeating Hatsu Hioki and gritted through a tougher than expected bout against Andy Ogle.
Ultimately this is likely a matchup that favors Stephens as he’s had more success against the kind of challenges Oliveira poses than Oliveira has had success against powerful strikers. However, neither fighter can afford to play to the other man’s strength as both are excellent finishers. Between Oliveira’s aggressive submission game, and Stephens’ powerful kickboxing, this should make for a very fun fight.
Connor McGregor is very much the product of 20 years of MMA violence and mayhem; martial arts skill and diversity melded with personality in a sport that has constantly looked to celebrate both, despite very few true opportunities to do so. The mass consciousness seemed to be looking at McGregor’s bout with Poirier, not so much as a test to be passed, but as an expected marker of entry into the divisional elite; a sign that the hype placed upon him had been well and truly justified. In general, UFC 178 was all about expectations, all about the knowledge that this was a card that couldn’t fail to deliver, but in ways that were almost impossible to predict. The fact that it still very much did so makes UFC 178 almost singularly remarkable in modern MMA history. The rare card that entirely lives up to the hype.
Disclaimer Time: I went a decent 7-4 on this card, in terms of fight picking it was a solid, if expected return. There was one big upset that spoiled one of my fight picks, and one surprisingly poor performance, the other two ended up being the result of competitive “toss-up” bouts going against me. Still, I’m not much for gambling, so I can’t give a lot of great gambling advice, the purpose of this article is more to use the settings of gambling, the fight odds and picks, as a way of discussing fighter development in relationship to expectations. As always, I’ll be using Best Fight Odds to get the odds on each fight, and taking the mode (or most common line) on each fighter. So, on to the fights!
Bellator 126
Hindsight: Bubba Jenkins (-400) vs. Thiago Meller (+345) (I picked Jenkins, I was right)
It still seems a little remarkable that Jenkins is getting these kinds of odds in fights. Never mind that Meller was basically hand picked to be a good matchup for him, he just doesn’t appear to be getting more comfortable outside his wrestling. He gets touched up coming in, because his striking isn’t quite diverse enough to be unpredictable. And he still shows signs of having trouble controlling athletic opponents for long stretches.
It will be interesting to see if Jenkins makes big jumps in skill soon. I wouldn’t be surprised if his development plateaus for a bit as he continues to get tougher opponents.
Hindsight: Alexander Shlemenko (+103) vs. Brandon Halsey (-123) (I picked Halsey, I was right)
It appears that I, and a lot of other people, saw a certain tragic inevitability in this fight for Alexander Shlemenko. He’s been a great champion for Bellator, and his three successful title defenses made him one of the promotions most dominant champions. However, he’d also fought a notable lack of powerful, accomplished wrestlers and his fight with Tito portended an outcome that Halsey brought about with a swiftness.
Now, of course, it will be interesting to see if Halsey’s success is the hallmark of a whole new reign of dominance, or an especially fortuitous matchup. He’s a huge, crushingly powerful middleweight, but his striking isn’t exactly electric. If Bellator can bring in big strong 185ers for him to compete against, he may struggle to find the success of his predecessor. But, that’s a big if. Even in the UFC 185 is a weak division outside the top 15. Halsey may rule Bellator with little trouble.
I missed Held vs. Freire and West vs. Richman, so I won’t be talking about them.
UFC 178
Hindsight: Manny Gamburyan (+145) vs. Cody Gibson (-160) (I picked Gibson, I was wrong)
For a round and a half, Gibson made the odds on his win look excessively poor. He was pretty clearly dominating “The Anvil” on his way to a unanimous decision or potentially even TKO, when suddenly he found himself on the receiving end of a short sharp lesson in defensive grappling. If Gibson and Gamburyan rematched that fight tomorrow, I’d probably pick Gibson to do it at about these same odds, but that doesn’t change what happened here.
It’s a tough loss for Gibson, and a reminder that while talented and aggressive, he’s also coming up on six years as a pro fighter and still possess a lot of the defensive liabilities of a raw talent. His striking really looks like it’s come along (although he seems more defensive by turns than as a consistent skill), but his defensive acumen in scrambles may need some work, as his past tendencies to leave himself vulnerable and give up dominant positions cost him again.
For Gamburyan, this feels a bit like a stay of execution. He didn’t look good at almost any point up until his submission win, and it’s hard to imagine many people coming out of that fight, feeling like he’d reinvigorated his career. But, it’s still a great upset and a great moment and it shows that he can still be a dangerous matchup against mid-range talent in the UFC.
Hindsight: Kevin Lee (-250) vs. Jon Tuck (+210) (I picked Tuck, I was wrong)
I am still a bit shocked that Kevin Lee was such a massive favorite over Jon Tuck here. Lee barely scraped by with a split decision over the tough, but underwhelming Jesse Ronson. While Tuck was coming off a fairly dominant win over Jake Lindsey. Still, Lee proved the hype right, by out working and bullying Tuck all fight. He’s definitely marked himself as a fighter to watch.
I still think that Tuck was the more technical fighter in this bout, but he may be working on a losing battle with his combination of a lanky frame and a less than amazing counter wrestling game. He’s a decent striker and he generates real power in his hands and feet and he compliments it well with some grappling, but none of that came to bear against Lee. When he’s matched up against better, stronger wrestlers it’s hard to see him winning.
The rebuilding of Lee looks to be continuing successfully. He’s been working with Xtreme Couture and Drysdale BJJ lately, and they appear to have stripped out everything from his game that wasn’t working and replaced it with some simple, functional boxing to compliment his strong wrestling and transition game. Hopefully that trend continues, because he’s got all the natural talent in the world.
Hindsight: Brian Ebersole (+200) vs. John Howard (-260) (I picked Howard, I was wrong-ish)
This line on Howard felt exactly right going into this bout, and for the first round or so, Ebersole looked to be fighting down to his low expectations. Unfortunately, what we ended up with was a very real reminder of Howard’s limitations as a one-off striker that often tries to dominate with his wrestling and grappling. This makes it very tough to anticipate Howard’s advantages going forward, especially when facing technical wrestlers and grapplers.
Ebersole did not look great in this bout, and it feels a bit like he was gifted by an opponent who was willing to stand in front of him while getting hit, before defaulting to a wrestling game that played right into Ebersole’s strengths. He’s still got the talent to win fights going forward, but much of that seems like it will be based of how aggressively he’s pursued by his opponents. Howard was tentative and let Ebersole fight a very comfortable fight.
I can’t even start to care enough about this bout to give any scoring controversy any lip service.
Hindsight: Patrick Cote (+300) vs. Stephen Thompson (-400) (I picked Thompson, I was right)
Thompson was always going to out work Cote, and there was little going in to this bout that suggested he’d come up on the wrong side of it. That played out perfectly throughout, as Cote never got any significant offense going…
But, it can’t be overstated how disappointing this performance was from Thompson. He was primed for a showcase win over an opponent who wasn’t going to be able to match him on the feet or wrestle him to the ground. And yet, he got nothing done. He seemed happy to potshot Cote whenever Cote overstepped his aggression and came in hard, but otherwise he just sat back and let the fight go. It was an easy win, but it doesn’t create excitement for Thompson’s next bout.
For Cote, the signs are there that he should be looking hard at careers beyond fighting. His once rock solid chin is looking increasingly crack-able and the physical gifts that he relied on to catch up with more technical opponents just don’t seem to be there anymore. He wasn’t competitive at all with Thompson, and it felt like it was only Thompson’s lack of aggression that let this bout go the distance.
Hindsight: James Krause (+287) vs. Jorge Masvidal (-349) (I picked Masvidal, I was right)
Krause came in as a pretty significant underdog, but I think many expected him to do better than he did in this bout, especially early, when Masvidal has classically been weak. Instead, he got beat pillar to post by the much more technical fighter, and never really found a way into the bout. It’s hard to know if Masvidal is showing himself to be an improved version of his past self, or if this was just an “on” night, but he deserves to be the favorite against practically anyone outside the top 10.
This should be something of a capping point for those expecting a run on the top 10 out of James Krause. He’s a fighter who has, at times, demonstrated some fun, dynamic skills, but his game is just not terribly fluid, and certain parts of it are very, very rough. He doesn’t wrestle particularly well on offense and when he doesn’t get the space to set up his striking, his output can be downright anemic. Masvidal was able to control him from bell to bell.
Hindsight: Dominick Cruz (-550) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (+375) (I picked Cruz, I was right)
I really expected this to be a much more competitive fight than it was. Cruz was almost certain to show some ring rust, coming back after such a long layoff, and Mizugaki has always been a tough grind for everyone. It didn’t play out that way at all, and may represent the most stunning win of Cruz’s career.
That said, we really didn’t see the “classic Cruz” at all. He looked to be moving decently early, but every time he came in he got hit and didn’t seem to have the timing and distance on his own strikes down. That’s probably something he can work out once he gets back into the rhythm of fight camp training. And, of course, it didn’t matter at all, as Cruz used his always dominant takedown game to new effect by blitzing Mizugaki and pounding him into unconsciousness within seconds of taking him down. If that’s a new wrinkle in his game, it’s a very scary one.
Unfortunately, this pretty much dashes Mizugaki’s chances for a dark horse title shot. The division has gotten increasingly short on challengers over the past year or so and there was some real likelihood that Mizugaki could slip in to a fight against Dillashaw with Barao out of immediate contention. Now, he’s back down at the bottom of the list with Cruz, Assuncao, and Barao ahead of him and it’s unlikely he puts together enough wins at the top to step up in line.
Hindsight: Amanda Nunes (+190) vs. Cat Zingano (-225) (I picked Zingano, I was right)
I don’t know that I’d say I’m surprised Zingano was as much a favorite as she was (there are a lot of fans with a lot of faith in her), but especially considering how tough this bout ended up being on her, I’d say that she was probably a bit heavily favored on the books. Zingano is a great athlete and a very good fighter, but she has a lot of gaps in her skill game that top tier talent can exploit.
And Amanda Nunes did exploit them to great effect early. Against 95% of her division, she probably would have walked away a winner in the first 5 minutes. But, like so many strong front-running fighters, she’s ended up hitting serious walls as the best fighters can gut through adversity and force her outside her bullying game. Outside her debut, her losses have all come late in fights, and most of her finishes are early. Hard to see that changing after 7 years pro.
Zingano is very much a legit title challenger. She’s got a wealth of fan support in the hardcore community and the kind of incredible in cage performances that make her a fighter everyone wants to root for. That said, it’s hard to watch her come out of this fight and feel she has a snowball’s chance of defeating Ronda Rousey. Her ability to get totally overwhelmed and dominated early in fights is all the opportunity that Rousey needs to get her out inside the first round.
Hindsight: Tim Kennedy (-135) vs. Yoel Romero (+110) (I picked Romero, I was right)
I don’t think I quite realized that Kennedy was the favorite going in to this fight, and it’s a little surprising, considering, in my own mind, that a Kennedy win was based more on Romero’s mistakes. For Romero to win, he just had to stay focused and on his game plan… and inevitably get left on the stool just a little too long after getting rocked.
It is a troubling factor, of course, that Romero did show his past propensity to fight at a lackadaisical pace, and that he very much paid the price for it. Whether he is able to spin this win into a title shot, or if he has to face another top 10 fighter on the way, his lapses on offense and defense could mean that his time as a top contender will be very limited.
I understand that Kennedy has to feel robbed of a win here, and he has a lot to feel unhappy about. But ultimately, whether it was outside circumstances or just his eagerness to finish the fight, Kennedy came in reckless and paid the price. For a fighter who has been marked by his patient persistence more than anything else, it was a momentary lapse that may haunt him for the rest of his career.
Hindsight: Conor McGregor (-260) vs. Dustin Poirier (+215) (I picked McGregor, I was right)
It’s alarming to think that Dominick Cruz came in as high as 667 to win, when McGregor couldn’t climb above 300. Both men put on similarly and singularly dominant performances, but there was much, much more reason to think that McGregor was capable of it. That said, McGregor has engendered a lot of doubt, hopefully this win silences most of it.
Poirier has already gone on record to say that this was a particularly crushing loss for him, and it’s hard to see it as anything else. Yes, he can and almost certainly will come back, but it’s a firm re-establishment of a ceiling that many (myself included) felt he was primed to knock through. Unfortunately, for him, this is the third time he’s faced off against a legit top 5 fighter, and he’s come up short each time. While he’s been improving in the meantime, the classic defensive holes in his game are still there.
McGregor is just one of those talents. Much like Chris Weidman, Jon Jones, or Cain Velasquez, McGregor seems destined to bulldoze his way into a title shot, and it’s one he just might win. Of course the fact that he just eats leg kicks is not a good sign for his potential in that fight, but it’s undeniably the fight fans are going to want to see. The only roadblock potentially standing in the way of that fight would be Chad Mendes, but with Mendes set to face Aldo, it’s very likely that the two men never meet on their way to the title.
Hindsight: Eddie Alvarez (+120) vs. Donald Cerrone (-145) (I picked Alvarez, I was wrong)
I honestly thought Alvarez deserved to be a slight favorite going in, due to his movement based, technical boxing style, something that seemed perfectly equipped to take Cerrone down in the ways that he’s often been challenged by more technical strikers in his career. It didn’t play out that way, but it was close to coin flip odds on a coin flip fight that was generally even enough that I can’t find any fault in picking it wrong.
Alvarez did show that he could hurt Cerrone with just his boxing in this fight. He had the tools he needed to beat Cerrone, but he didn’t have enough of them. That’s the biggest takeaway for Alvarez here, is that that against the highest level of opposition he’s almost relegated to being “just a boxer.” He’s an incredibly solid boxer and can beat most UFC lightweights with that alone, but that’s just not enough for the top of the division where skill diversity really matters.
As such, Cerrone’s kicking game really became the star of a close fight between them. I’m not sure if he’s better than any time in the past, but he didn’t seem to suffer from nearly as much of his slow start in this fight, and on the heels of this big run he’s on, it’s hard to argue that he’s not in perfect position for a title shot. He did lose to Pettis just last year, so that’s a mitigating factor, but only Nurmagomedov is smoking high level lightweights with the ease and regularity of Cerrone right now.
Hindsight: Chris Cariaso (-1600) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+800) (I picked Johnson, I was right)
This feels like a bout that you can’t claim you picked right unless you also picked the method of victory and the round. Johnson was always going to win, it was just a case of how and how fast. There’s no one in the division primed to beat him at the moment, and only one really competitive looking bout on the horizon. The only question left is, how do you sell that?
Cariaso did exactly as well as most had predicted, which is to say, terribly. He had no success in any area of this fight and it’s really only his trademark toughness that saw him through the first round. It’s not much a setback, however, as he was only really considered a gatekeeper to the top ten and that’s exactly the role this sets him back to.
For Demetrious Johnson, it’s the best possible thing for his career that he’s at least establishing some reputation for finishing fighters he’s better than. Even he was selling the rest of this card over himself in the lead-up and the only way he gets more marketable is to show that every time he steps in the cage he’s going to be a dominant wrecking machine.
Those are my collected thoughts from UFC 178 and Bellator 126. So many of them seem obvious now, but as always, that’s the benefit of hindsight. Stay tuned for next week’s edition, when I’ll be talking about why Nelson was primed to beat Story, why MacDonald is still on the rise at 170, and maybe a few Bellator thoughts… maybe. Until then!
The Swedish MMA Federation (SMMAF) has put itself firmly in the cross hairs of future criticism stemming from their debacle with a Cage Warriors card set to take place in Stockholm in late August. The card wasn’t anything particularly special for a CWFC show, a mix of strong up and coming prospects and battle tested vets, the sort of card that smaller MMA shows put on week in and week out without concern. That didn’t stop the SMMAF from pulling the plug on all but one of the planned bouts (and eventually forcing CWFC to move the show to Jordan). Citing that many of the fighters were too inexperienced, or matched against too highly experienced veterans, to compete under the unified rules of MMA, SMMAF drew a hard line on their expectations of future cards.
Of course, one of those future cards is the UFC’s Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story. While most of the bouts on the card are reasonably well matched, one fight has drawn fire from Cage Warriors and MMA media as a clear sign of regulatory favoritism toward the Zuffa run organization. That bout was Dennis Siver vs. Rob Whiteford. Siver being 31 fight, 17 UFC appearances veteran, and Whiteford being a 13 fight veteran and relative UFC newcomer. When Whiteford went down to injury, the criticism only increased, as his replacement was tabbed as 22-year old Frenchman Taylor Lapilus. Lapilus is only nine fights and two years into his career. And more to the point, having only once fought outside of France, has likely never competed under the full unified MMA rule set (France does not allow ground and pound).
This was essentially exactly the kind of matchmaking that the SMMAF was holding itself up as trying to prevent. If they gave the UFC a free pass to make this fight, it would be only because they were the UFC. That message appears to have been received, as Combat Press reports that the SMMAF has pulled Lapilus from his UFC debut. In his place will be Charles Rosa. Here’s their official statement on the cancelled bout:
Mr. Taylor Lapilus After having reviewed the information submitted as well as having viewed footage of Mr. Lapilus, the Board of SMMAF must regrettably declare that the request regarding Mr Lapilus as a contender to Mr. Siver has been denied. The grounds for the denial is the inexperience of the athlete in question as based on his age, his technical skill, his record and his overall short background in MMA. This gives reason to believe that he has limited, if any, sparring and competition experience outside of the official record. It is therefore our judgement that a full-contact, professional MMA match between Mr. Lapilus and Mr. Siver would be an uneven match-up to the point where we Mr. Lapilus’ safety can not be guaranteed.
As part of the announcement, the SMMAF also announced that Charles Rosa had already been approved. So…
Who is Charles Rosa?
28-year old Rosa is also a nine fight MMA veteran with only two years of pro experience (although he claims over 20 bouts as an amateur as well), fighting out of American Top Team alongside Jorge Masvidal, Yoel Romero, Thaigo Alves and all the rest of the top talent there. His record isn’t quite terrible for an undefeated fighter through his first 9 fights, but he has yet to take any serious steps up in competition. Only Keith Richardson, of all his opponents, has a winning record. So, fighting someone of Siver’s calliber may end up being quite a shock. He has three TKOs and six submissions, having finished every one of his fights. Richardson is the only fighter to take him past the first round. Prior to his MMA career, Rosa had a background as an amateur hockey player.
What you should expect:
Rosa fights with an aggressive, kick heavy striking style. He’s comfortable snapping out solid headkicks with either leg behind decent (if not terribly powerful) 1-2 combinations and appears fairly light on his fight. Interestingly, although I can’t find any mention of past experience in the art, Rosa often appears to fight out of a sort of taekwondo/TMA stance from which he regularly threatens with side kicks and rear leg roundhouse kicks. The heart of his kickboxing aggression appears to be a complete lack of fear of ending up on his back, as he’s very comfortable transitioning immediately to armbars and chaining submissions off his opponents takedowns. That’s not a particularly strong strategy for the upper levels of MMA, and in Rosa’s fight against Richardson, he demonstrated that both his inside striking and top control need a lot of work.
What this means for his debut:
Not good things. In fact, I might even be willing to argue that Lapilus had a better shot against Siver. Rosa probably has slightly better takedown defense (maybe) but he’s a much less technically grounded striker and is prone to getting bullied inside. When he’s not on his back, his control grappling and striking game isn’t that well developed and his aggressive armbar based transition grappling game from the bottom is likely to suffer against stifling top control monsters like Siver. Rosa probably needed a few intermediate steps before jumping into the deep end of the pool, and as such this may be a very rough UFC debut for him.
To get us better acquainted, here’s his recent bout against Brylan van Artsdalen:
The UFC teased a special announcement ahead of their press conference going in to UFC 178. The press conference was to officially announce the headlining bout between Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler, following a hand injury to Chris Weidman. Speculation ran wild on Twitter as to what the reveal would actually be.
“Locker room bonus” really means “free Hot Pockets for winning fighters”. #UFCReveal
The ultimate answer would end up being a fun new promotional effort in partnership with DC Comics. A fresh new UFC poster featuring the headliners of UFC 181:
The poster’s artist Howard Porter spoke to Fox Sports about his love of MMA, and getting to work with the UFC.
“I was pinching myself. After I stopped doing backflips around the house, I just couldn’t believe it because I’m such a big fan of MMA. I didn’t think an opportunity like this would come along in my lifetime,” Porter told FOX Sports. …
“I was just talking about how they are so much like superheroes,” Porter said. “Often times they even have their own alter egos — what they’re like out of the cage isn’t what they’re like inside the cage. Their athleticism in the cage, I mean they are some of the greatest athletes in the world.
“They made the job very easy. It’s really just drawing from life. They really are superheroes.”
So, what do you think? Has the UFC made a step in the right direction when it comes to poster art?
The first of Nick Diaz’s DUI court dates is behind him. He was in San Joaquin County court on Thursday, September 25th, for a pre-trial hearing of stemming from a DUI arrest in December of 2013. Since that arrest, Diaz has missed multiple court appearances and had his license suspended. He was arrested again, earlier this month and charged with another DUI, as well as driving under a suspended license and tampering with evidence, following his attempts to make himself vomit, to pass a breathalyzer.
It’s unclear if he’ll be going through separate hearings for his charges, or if they’ve all been rolled into one. According to a report from ESPN, he’s currently facing a total of eight separate charges from his two arrests. At his Thursday hearing, ESPN reports that Diaz entered a plea of “Not Guilty”. His next court date is scheduled for November 6th.
In the meantime, he’s still got a fight to prepare for, as the UFC expects him to be able to obtain his fight license to take on Anderson Silva in Las Vegas on January 31st of 2015. From the sound of things, as long as Diaz makes it through the trial process without further incident, the UFC has decided to stick by him.
And of course, true to form, Diaz was ready for a few photos after his time in court:
A new host of fighters are making their way to the UFC as they look to get late injury replacements, fill out a growing division, and continue to search for exciting young talent. First up is Taylor Lapilus, who will fill in for the injured Robert Whiteford at UFC Fight Night: Stockholm, on October 4th, against Dennis Siver. Making their way into the UFC along with Lapilus are Nina Ansaroff and Leon Edwards. Both fighters will debut on the upcoming November Uberlandia card, where Ansaroff will face Juliana Lima and Edwards will take on Claudio Henrique da Silva. So…
Who is Taylor Lapilus?
The 22-year old Frenchman trains out of Crossfight MMA, alongside Christian M’Pumbu and his brother, Cage Warriors lightweight, Damien Lapilus. Unusually for a French fighter coming in to the UFC, “Double Impact” has fought almost exclusively in France in his young career. Only his first fight, in Belgium, was outside the country. While this may not sound like a big deal, Graham Boylan (Cage Warriors CEO) points out on Twitter, that this means that he’s likely never been in a fight that allowed ground and pound as it’s illegal under French rules. If that’s the case, this debut could be a massive shock beyond the big step up in competition. It’s also worth noting, that this late notice matchup between a 30 fight, 11 year and top ten vet, in Siver, and the 8-1, 22-year old Lapilus is taking place under the guidance of the SMMAF. It’s the same organization that recently dissolved their professional oversight committee following a scandle involving their unwillingness to sanction the majority of fights on a Cage Warriors card, due to their mismatch potential. It’s hard to overstate how badly that decision smacks of incompetence in the light of okaying a fight like this.
What you should expect:
Lapilus definitely has the makings of a good, technical striker. His footwork is outstanding in its economy and consistency. He always keeps his legs under him when throwing combinations and looks to have solid defensive movement, hand and head position. He’s reasonably comfortable working in the pocket or outside, as well. However, he doesn’t quite work in enough volume yet, and can get backed up and pushed off his game a bit by strikers that are willing to wade in wild on him. Unfortunately, beyond his kickboxing, he really appears to lack all the pieces of a wrestling game. His takedown defense game is almost non-existent beyond his sprawl, and he shows very few signs of generating his own takedowns either. He has a quick aggressive grappling game when the fight hits the mats, but it’s not the kind of thing he should depend on, especially if he’s not used to using it while defending strikes.
What this means for his debut:
Remember Siver vs. Phan… I’d expect this to be a lot like that. Lapilus is a very good prospect, and with a couple more years and a better camp, maybe a few wins under Cage Warriors, he could be a top flight prospect. But, right now he’s too green and has too many holes in his skill game. Siver isn’t an advanced wrestler, but he’s good enough there to get Lapilus down and he’s a beast from top control.
To get us better acquainted, here’s Lapilus’ recent bout against Osman Minbatirov:
Who is Nina Ansaroff?
“The Strina” (whatever that is) is an MMA Masters fight team member, training alongside Josh Samman, Luis Palomino and Amanda Nunes. The 28-year old has been a flyweight for the bulk of her career, amassing a 6-3 record with her biggest win coming over Munah Holland at Invicta FC 7. Other than a quick submission loss to Casey Noland, her only other defeats have been to top competition as she went to a majority decision against Barb Honchak and a split decision against Carla Esparza. So, while it may not be the most impressive record, she’s been competitive with other top women in her division in the past. Prior to her MMA career, she has a background in Taekwondo.
What you should expect:
Ansaroff is a very comfortable striker at range. Her footwork and defensive head movement are both good, and she throws nice straight punches. She’s got a decent kicking game, from her Taekwondo and soccer careers, and generally appears very confident on her feet. She can get a bit lost in combinations in the pocket, and can get overwhelmed by fighters looking to press her, especially if she gets over dependent on her kicking game. Impressively, Ansaroff has shown flashes of a strong shot, and moves nicely off her initial angle to get completion. Her biggest flaw to date appears to be her inability to maintain aggressive offense as she often ends up circling away on her back foot. She also tends to default a little heavily to spinning strikes when put in bad defensive positions.
What this means for her debut:
Unfortunately for Ansaroff, Lima may be exactly the kind of fighter to beat her. In a style vs. style matchup, Ansaroff just may not be that well equipped to handle Lima’s aggressive wrestling game. Lima likes to flurry into the clinch shoot for takedowns, and work from top position, and she’s pretty good at it. Ansaroff has some decent takedown defense is a takedown threat herself, and unusually for WMMA, has some real power in her hands, but I think her tendency to sit back and wait for opportunities will play right into Lima’s game. Ansaroff looks to be a good, strong fighter, but this may not be her fight.
To get us better acquainted, here’s some footage of her recent bout against Aylla Caroline Lima da SIlva:
Who is Leon Edwards?
BAMMA’s British Welterweight title holder comes in to the UFC at just 22-years of age. Edwards trains out of UTC Brimingham, alongside UFC bantamweight Vaughan Lee. He carries an 8-1 record with him into the octagon, with his only defeat coming due to a disqualification for an illegal knee. He’s been a pro since 2011, rising through the BAMMA ranks over the past few years. Edwards has wins over solid rising prospects in Shaun Taylor and longtime regional vet Wayne Murrie to round out a generally good if not quite great record. He’s also only gone to decision twice in his career, with four KOs and two submissions.
What you should expect:
Edwards is a very powerful striker, most particularly in transition. He doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense in the world, but he often makes up for it, or attempts to do so, by landing hard, accurate knees and elbows in scrambles and while getting taken down. Coupled with his striking offense, Edwards has shown a nice trip and drag takedown game, both things that fit into his scrambling strike and submission offense. His top control isn’t bad, but he gets caught in guard fairly easily and isn’t the most dynamic in his ground and pound. If he can’t get the quick submission he often just falls into guard. Beyond that, he’s not the best combination striker in the world, but the kind of power he generates means he doesn’t have to be. He also is very good at generating power in the clinch with his dirty boxing and knees.
What this means for his debut:
Edwards should be able to beat da Silva fairly easily. Da Silva is, at times a desperation grappler. He doesn’t have a great striking or wrestling game, and often throws himself at opponents, looking to create contact and drag them to the ground. Edwards should be able to use his superior athleticism to shuck da Silva and dominate in the clinch. Da Silva has shown shades of being a more aggressive, wild brawler on his feet, as is often the case with BJJ grapplers without a developed secondary game, but that just means there’s a greater probability the tries to trade with Edwards in his strength. This has all the hallmarks of a showcase debut for the English newcomer.
To get us better acquainted, here’s his recent bout against Wayne Murrie at BAMMA 15:
The UFC’s signing of Richard Odoms back in July was just a little bit odd. The full time police officer and part time heavyweight fighter may have been 8-1 coming up through the Texas regional scene. But, at 39 years old it was difficult to stick the “prospect” label on him, even in a division featuring top ten fighters who debuted back in 1999. It wasn’t even a short notice callup, or at least not one that was reported. Odoms was signed to face rising heavyweight Ruslan Magomedov on the blighted UFC 177 card.
Shortly after the signing was announced Odoms pulled out of the bout for “undisclosed reasons.” More often than not that means an injury, but perhaps it was something more, something that would prevent Odoms from competing consistently at the UFC level, as it appears now that Odoms has been released from his contract. No official announcement has been made, but Odoms is currently scheduled to fight rising Russian prospect and heavyweight sambist Konstantin Erokhin under the Far East Federation of Modern Pankration in Vladivostok, Russia, in October.
It’s almost assured, after bringing Odoms into the UFC, that Erokhin is a fighter they’ll have their eyes on. He’s currently 7-1, but hasn’t lost since his debut against Denis Goltsov back in 2012. He has six wins by first round KO, including one of Sokoudjou and a recent decision over Brett Rogers. A win over Odoms here, could punch his ticket to a bigger promotion.
It’s a big week of exciting fights for fans, as we build up to UFC 178. It’s one of (if not the) best cards that the UFC has put on all year from top to bottom and features a ton of exciting match-ups that are basically guaranteed to provide entertaining action. So, of course, our breakdown is all over the place. None the less, we had a lot to say about all of today’s fights, and looking at how they’re going to go down.
And, of course, if you’re still into this sort of thing (even after watching it) then you should subscribe to our YouTube channel, MMANATIONDOTCOM. There you’ll get updates of all our latest video content, before it hits Bloody Elbow. And, if our Ooyala player here, isn’t working for you, you can watch the show there.
Here’s a look at the card, so you can follow along:
UFC 178 (Pay-per-view at 10:00 p.m. ET)
Demetrious Johnson vs. Chris Cariaso
Eddie Alvarez vs. Donald Cerrone
Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier
Tim Kennedy vs. Yoel Romero
Amanda Nunes vs. Cat Zingano
Fox Prelims (FOX Sports 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET)
Dominick Cruz vs. Takeya Mizugaki
James Krause vs. Jorge Masvidal
Patrick Cote vs. Stephen Thompson
Brian Ebersole vs. John Howard
Fight Pass Prelims (UFC Fight Pass at 7:00 p.m. ET)
If Wanderlei Silva has achieved anything over the past month or two, it’s the maintenance of his presence in the public sphere. Since his announced retirement, he’s stayed on the war wagon with a rhetorical barrage of harsh words for his former bosses at Zuffa, for the NSAC whom he’s prepared to do legal battle with, and for the unseen masses of haters who would drag his name down into the muck. He recently spoke to Combate about his decision to retire, and didn’t let up with his criticisms. (transcription via Fernando Arbex)
“The main reason is how MMA has been managed, the disrespect with the athletes. It’s becoming a freak show. The promotions turn one fighter against another and don’t want to pay anything. If a guy refuses to fight, an executive makes a statement and tries to show himself as a more important person. It’s shameful. The guy has never been slapped in the face and tries to be more important. A fop that has never been hit says: ‘You are good. That fighter don’t want to fight you, he’s afraid’. No, nobody is afraid. Everyone that steps in ring deserves respect and to be recognized but that isn’t the case. They try to turn our fans against us. People believe in some of what is said: ‘This guy is over, he doesn’t want to fight that other guy’. They don’t want to pay us, just pennies. You ask for more money and they say that they don’t have. What do you mean? They have, they don’t want to pay. And they say that someone is afraid? I’m upset about it.”
And he talked a bit more about other fighters he felt had been wronged by the UFC:
“Barao was in a 32 fights unbeaten streak, undisputed champion, best pound for pound fighter in the world. I’m not talking about numbers but I was told he was living in a favela until little time ago. I’ve seen a picture that he was in a very poor house with his UFC belt beside him. If I was the promotion’s owner, I would feel ashamed to pay him little money and charge him so hard. These guys are bad characters to call a guy a kid, like they did with Barao. We don’t have voice, but it’s going to change.”
And by the NSAC:
“It was gentlemanlike. I haven’t spoken with Sonnen but people say that he’s a nice guy. He was wronged by NSAC. I think it’s unfair if you punish one and don’t punish the other guy. It was even worse because the guy said himself that they were friends but Sonnen was fired from Fox. He was cut, fired and they tried to forbid him to fight Jiu-Jitsu. He can’t work anymore? Who is going to pay his bills? To help him? Nobody helps anyone. They use us, kick our asses and do whatever they want. But it will be over.”
“His punishment was unfair. We don’t know what is behind this commission. In the same audience, Sonnen was punished and other guy (Vitor Belfort) that was caught with extremely high levels of testosterone on February was released to fight in December. Both of them had the same number of incidences. It was the same case. One of them was banned and the other is free to fight. We have to know who regulates this commission, who controls it, because it’s like a circus. They do what the want and we have nobody to complain to. Nobody knows who controls this organization. They don’t respect their own rules. It’s complicated.”
He even talked a little bit about his own financial situation and how well he did out of his MMA career:
“I don’t know. If we’ll talk about numbers, I need to know everyone’s numbers. I don’t want to say how much I earned, I want to know how much everyone is earning. I had a good salary, but I also want to know how much the promotion is earning also. It’s not about how much the other guy is earning. We want to know the total and the percentage given to the athletes.”
As Wanderlei prepares to gear up for a court battle with the NSAC over his $70,000 fine and lifetime suspension, I’m sure we’ll hear more of his thoughts on the MMA industry and it’s oversight, so stay tuned.
Wanderlei Silva is preparing for a fight. And he’s taking the battle to Twitter. His attorney announced, shortly after the NSAC ruled for Silva’s lifetime ban from fighting in Nevada (as well as a $70,000 fine), that Silva would be challenging the ruling in district court within 30 days. Josh Gross reported the announcement:
Wanderlei Silva’s attorney, Ross Goodman, called NAC a “kangaroo court.” Promised to appeal today’s ruling to district court within 30 days.
Goodman, Silva’s attourney, has already been through the legal process with the NSAC before, as he was Nick Diaz’s lawyer back in 2012, when the former welterweight top contender tried to overturn a suspension for marijuana metabolites following a loss to Carlso Condit after UFC 143. Goodman argued on Diaz’s that the metabolites themselves weren’t technically banned illegal, the case didn’t get very far.
That doesn’t mean that Silva isn’t still trying to rally support to his cause, as he sent out a series of rousing (and sweary) tweets from his Twitter account. Our own Fernando Arbex provided the translation:
“Thank you my friends, you got the power and you give it for whoever you want. Thank you very much for everything. And for you that desire my fall, come to me, the war is only in the beginning you sons of bitches. You’re going to see that we rule this shit. Bunch of fops.”
Valeu amigos por tudo,o poder é de vcs e vcs dao a quem vcs quiserem!!! Muito obrigado por tudo!
He also added this picture to Instagram, with another message in preperation for battle:
“No way! My fans no body take, thanks my guys! Doesn’t matter, we’re too many. We’re going to show our strength. You want a brawl, come to me and you’ll have, motherfuckers!!!!”
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