Andre Berto rooting for McGregor at UFC 196: ‘I’m rockin’ my man Conor for sure’

UFC 196 looks like it has all the makings of a big, big event for the promotion. A last minute replacement from lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos to Nate Diaz, and a move for the main event from lightweight to welterweight doesn’t seem to have dampened any of the enthusiasm for Conor McGregor’s return to the cage. And alongside the Irishman’s return, the celebrity fight picks are starting to roll in.

Even some boxers are getting in on the act, as TMZ caught up with former world champion boxer Andre Berto to get his take on who would win when McGregor faces off against Diaz on March 5th in Las Vegas, Nevada.

“It’s gonna be a good one. You know, Conor’s my boy, man. I think Conor finna take it. I think he’s gonna take it, knock out.

“Listen, man, Conor’s just on a whole ‘nother level, like confidence-wise, right. Like I say, man, I think he’s wonderful for the sport. And shit, he’s the hottest thing going in the UFC right now.”

Berto even gave his prediction on a time, saying he doesn’t think it’s likely to go much past the first round.

“Shit, at the most, what, at the end of the first? End of the first, second, I don’t know. Like I say, old boy [Diaz] is tough, so we’ll see what’s going to happen. But, like I said, it’s two week’s notice. But it’s going to be a good fight, man. Everybody [unintelligable], but I’m rockin’ my man Conor, for sure.”

So what do you think? Who’s winning and when?

Referee explains point deduction at UFC London

You don’t see that many point deductions in the UFC. There are more than enough fouls to go around, but actual penalties, at the end of the day, end up being pretty rare. That could be because of the nature of MMA’s three round structure. Lose a point in a twelve, ten, or even six round fight and that’s bad, but over three rounds? An MMA fighter who gets a point taken doesn’t have a lot left to work with if they want to get a win.

Perhaps that’s why UFC referee Marc Goddard felt such a strong desire to explain his actions via Facebook and get rid of what he called an “unsettling angst” after taking away a point from prelim fighter Marlon Vera during his bout with Davey Grant at UFC London on February 27th. After a somewhat lengthy explanation as to just what being a referee meant to him, Goddard got down to brass tacks on why and how he decided to take a point:

“I had a very interesting and action filled evening when working last night at UFC London – in particular the bout between Marlon Vera and Davey Grant. I start the fight in my normal fashion and true to form with my sole intention on my next word being ‘stop’ exactly 5 minutes later. At a point in that first round you will hear me warn Vera for holding the fence, short concise and in normal fashion. Grant also communicated to me before my first intervention that his glove [fingers inside the cuff] was being held but I can only react to what I see. You will then see me stop the action when Vera was on his back and Grant stood in his guard for the same finger in cuff glove holding Grant was signifying to me earlier. Only this time I did see. I do not stand the fighter [Vera] up as that would be of detriment to the standing fighter who was not committing the foul – instead I issue my warning and allow the fight to continue.

“In the second round you will hear me interject again – as the same fingers in cuff process happened once more, this when I decided to stand the fighters at the same point anyway. So now that’s three warning within one and half rounds [on top of my pleading in between rounds]. People remark upon my tone at times – please think of this. It’s a fight, in an arena, with 16,000 people. It’s not a doctors waiting room. When a fighter may not be taking note of your prior warnings your natural instinct may be to escalate your tone – its called authority, I’m a referee – not a mother. I’m there to be listened to and obeyed [only when prompted to speak] and at times my tone and message will be stern. That’s my job. We move to the third round and for the third time in three consecutive rounds the same foul was committed. My verbal call out of the point deduction was again in the same fashion of referees talking during fights – we only want to break the action and alter the potential flow of the fight when absolutely necessary – so when the top fighter is the one being fouled stopping them, standing them up, issuing the warning again and deducting the point is the wrong course of action as any experienced referee would agree.

“A couple of points of note – people commentated on me asking for the translator at the end of round two. This was a deliberate act out of consideration for the TV and watching audience as I didn’t want anyone to think that Vera was at a disadvantage from my communications – he wasn’t as he understands, spoke and speaks great English just as we did between each other in the dressing room in my fighter meeting rule debrief before the fights began. It was a consideration call I was making. People also remarked again about my stern tone and my comment of ‘I’m in charge’ again back to the repeated warnings issues, it’s a fight, its loud, and prior warnings are not being adhered to – remember I’m a referee! ☺

“People often ask ‘what is the role of a ref’? and ‘what do you actually do’? and I tell them – its simple, I travel the world to get shouted at! ☺ you may have heard me refer to the fact about referees often being damned if they do, damned if they don’t and in super charged atmospheres like last night with multiple interventions of a referee being called upon it provides a great example, discussion and learning point. What if I had chose to not act upon repeated fouls, what if the same action led to an arm being dragged back in for a fight ending submission, what if the same repeated fouls went unpunished and said fighter had won a super close razor thin decision? What if that had happened? What position/discussions would I find myself in today?

“And now the part that no one sees, that no camera picks up. The young man in question Mr Vera approached me after the fight backstage to apologize for his conduct and that I had to act. I tell him that he doesn’t have to – as I certainly don’t need one, I certainly don’t expect one, all I want is this talented young man to think, be more considered in his approach and allow his skills to give him the fairest possible outcome in his fights. He accepts and we shake hands and my heart goes out to him as I recognize so much. The actual acts he was committing can be instinctual form years or training in a Gi – gripping and holding ‘something’ and I recognize this but I am forced to act when a repeated warning [not a single act] are not adhered to. Its not always so clear as signifying the ‘intent’ in ‘intentional’ !

“I hope that you found this useful, helpful or insightful in some way. I hope that I can update or offer such insights once more – but I do contribute and write on a regular basis for Fighters Only magazine where such instances are broken down in detail. Remember we are humans, I strive for perfection and aim for it every single time. The need for improvement and review remains constant and believe me there is not a harsher critique in this world of me than myself! Again my apologies for the lengthy content but I hope that you can appreciate, and its not every day!”

“My closing words are of thanks to both Mr Vera and Mr Grant for a fast paced action packed and exciting fight totally regardless of any interjections that I had to make. That was a super display of modern day mixed martial arts. I look forward to you both excelling in your forthcoming careers.

“Many thanks.”

So, if you were looking for a more complete or thorough explanation of just what was going on during that Grant/Vera fight that caused a point deduction and how it all went down, now you’ve got it.

UFC London: Fights to make for the main card fighters

UFC London is in the books Michael Bisping beat Anderson Silva (more or less) and we as a people have to adjust to this strange new reality that we’ve inherited. New and difficult times need clear plans, guidelines by which we can forge ahead, find our footing, and regain some semblance of the reality we once knew. Obviously, in such a time, there is no better way forward than fantasy UFC fight booking. What I’m trying to say is, I understand how important a service I’m doing, and I want to make sure you get everything out of it you possibly can.

To that end, I’m following the Silva/Shelby method of fight booking. For the most part I’ll match winners against winners, losers against losers, and try and keep everyone to a similar level of experience. That’s the way the UFC likes to play the game, and as I’ve discussed above, the boat has already been thoroughly rocked, no need to tip it over. Now let’s get down to business.

Michael Bisping: So Bisping could be in the offing for a middleweight title shot. The sentimental parts of me are cool with that and wouldn’t mind seeing it even at Jacare’s expense (poor Jacare), if Jacare beats Belfort obviously. If Belfort somehow manages to beat Jacare, then I think Bisping should absolutely be next. I’ve seen Belfort fight for more titles than I can remember, the thought of him doing it again (even with a win over the champ) doesn’t excite me that much. If Jacare wins and the UFC decides to go with Jacare vs. Rockhold/Weidman winner then I would put Bisping in with Machida, assuming Machida beats Dan Henderson. That would be a high profile fun fight and it would really reinforce Bisping’s case to get a shot if he won it.

Anderson Silva: Whether you thought he won or lost, it’s pretty clear that today’s Anderson Silva neither has the chin nor the consistency of output of the classic version. That’s fine, we knew that was coming, but it does mean I’d rather see him keep to fighting other longtime vets, rather than top challengers. He could rematch Belfort assuming Belfort loses to Jacare. That would be a solid fight even twice over. But considering that the UFC already tried it and couldn’t book it, I doubt it happens. If that’s the case there are three potential fights that I think would all be good and fun. Rashad Evans win or lose to Shogun, Patrick Cote for the rematch of the title fight that never quite happened, or Yoshihiro Akiyama just for the hell of it. Of all of those I think Anderson Silva vs. Sexyama would be the most randomly entertaining, but any would be solid.

Gegard Mousasi: Mousasi breezed to a win to show that he’s still very firmly a top 10 level middleweight. Not a thrill a minute one, but the kind of fighter that most of his division just won’t beat. He really wants a rematch with Lyoto Machida, and that was a great fight. If Bisping wanted to wait for a title shot or something similar then I’d be fine seeing Mousasi get Machida again. But, for the sake of something new I’d really like to see Whittaker get a fight with Mousasi once he beats Natal. I think that’d be a fantastic fight and a great way to see if Whittaker can get a big enough name win to push him into top 5 matchups. And Whittaker has the kind of striking that might be able to force an aggressive pace out of Mousasi and not just let him keep the fight in second gear.

Thales Leites: Uriah Hall is coming off a loss. That would be an excellent style matchup so see which of these two fighters can really maintain a place in the top 10. Can Hall handle Leites consistent pressure game and strong grappling? Can Leites handle a powerful, unpredictable striker who he can’t dominate athletically? It’s a good fight and would answer new questions for both men.

Tom Breese: It wasn’t beautiful, but he got another solid win and continued his climb. He’s in a trickly place of being somewhat inexperienced, but having the kind of potential that he needs to keep getting pushed against decent talent. Two good steps up he could take would be Alexander Yakovlev and Sean Strickland. I think I’d really like to see the Strickland fight as Strickland could really use pushing by a similarly sized and similarly well rounded talent. A loss could be a bit derailing for either of them, but I think it’s also a fight that could separate out either fighter as clearly being on their way to the top of the division.

Brad Pickett: Since it sounds like this win is going to push him to stick around for another fight or two then I’d say this is the right time for fights with either Manny Gamburyan or Rani Yahya. I’d rather see the Yahya fight just because it’d be less dangerous to Pickett and might allow for more ground scrambles, but the Gamburyan one would be solid too.

Francisco Rivera: Rivera should have gotten a win, but didn’t. The UFC should keep him around, despite his less than stellar recent record. If they do, a fight with Iuri Alcantara makes sense. A fight with Eddie Wineland would also be fine if Wineland is still in the game.

Makwan Amirkhani: Mr. Finland is on the rise. And while I could see him facing another 3-0 fighter like Mirsad Bektic or Zubaira Tukhugov, I’d actually like to see him fight Mike De La Torre. MDLT is a dangerous, scrappy, well rounded fighter that could really push Amirkhani and provide a good test to his wrestle heavy game. It’d make for a fun fight and see if Amirkhani can continue to separate himself from the chaff at 145.

Rustam Khabilov: You know what, I’m sure I made other plans for James Krause last week (I did, Carlos Diego Ferriera), but Khabilov vs. Krause would be a fantastic fight. I would also really like to see Khabilov vs. Nik Lentz to see if either guy can put on a show that would propel them further toward the top 15 at 155.

Arnold Allen: Allen did well to get past a seasoned, but not quite dangerous, veteran in Yaotzin Meza. He controlled all areas of the fight, was consistent, and poured it on in the final seconds. Next up I’d like to see him take on Tiago Trator. Trator has a decent Muay Thai game, but is a very inconsistent talent. He’s the kind of a dangerous but not technically deep opponent that could be a nice step up for Allen to see if he can keep his momentum building.

Krzysztof Jotko: Much like Magnus Cedenblad was before his career got derailed by injury, Krzysztof Jotko is quietly building up some steam at 185. Obviously, this division needs every winning fighter it can get right now, so figuring out where Jotko should go next is a bit of a challenge. The winner of Cezar Ferreira vs. Caio Magalahaes could be a very good next step for Jotko, or if he doesn’t want to wait around, I bet Anthony Smith would be interested in a quick-ish turnaround as he seems to like to stay busy.

Other Bouts: Nakamura vs. Saunders, Wilkinson vs. Whiteford, Vera vs. Sasaki, Askham vs. Dongi, Scott vs. Theodorou, Parke vs. Koch, Omielanczuk vs. Abdurahimov, Danho vs. de la Rocha, Packalen vs. Gruetzemacher, Gouti vs. Olivieri, Teymur vs. Reyes

The MMA Prospectus: UFC London and Bamma 24

The UFC has been running some prospect heavy shows lately and none moreso than their upcoming London trip. Between Tom Breese, Makwan Amirkhani, and Arnold Allen, they’ve got three bright rising stars and a lot of other solid talent. We’ll also be taking a brief check by Bellator 150 (there’s not much there) and moving on to a BAMMA 24 card that’s similarly laden with potential. Oh, and of course we’re looking back on all last week’s action too. Lots to look at in the world of rising MMA fighters, so give check it out if that’s your bag.

And, as always, if you enjoyed the show give us a “Like” over on YouTube. While you’re there, consider subscribing to MMANATIONDOTCOM as well. That way you’ll always be up on the latest Bloody Elbow shows, interviews, and analysis.

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Hindsight: UFC Pittsburgh and Bellator 149 in retrospect

Between Bellator 149 and UFC Cowboy vs. Cowboy, the MMA world ran amok with motives. Kimbo Slice and Dada 5000 wanted street cred, or perhaps more precisely, they fought for vanity and the ability to let everyone know they walked the walk. Ken Shamrock and Royce Gracie, it seems, fought for passion, that feeling that they had let slip away something that was at one point core to their identity and now had an opportunity to regain it. Donald Cerrone fights to avoid boredom, as best as I can tell. Give the man two months with nothing to do and he’ll roll his truck just for a thrill. Fighting keeps him busy. And Alex Oliveira fought for opportunity, for money (yes, they all fought for money), and perhaps the luxury to someday fight as a cure for boredom or vanity or passion.

Disclaimer Time: And of course all of them fight for our entertainment, or in the case of this column, my entertainment and my fight picking abilities. I went 8-5 (9-4) if you think Reneau got robbed bad enough. And so this isn’t an especially good example of why I don’t gamble, except in as much as all cards are. I’m using betting odds and fight picks not to try and win money, but instead to try and build narrative out of chaos. To try and figure out what context can be given from a win or a loss with the odds against it or behind it. I’m using Odds Shark for the odds on each fight and taking the mode for each fighter. So lets get to the fights…

Bellator 149

Emmanuel Sanchez (-160) vs. Daniel Pineda (+135) (I picked Pineda, I was wrong)

• The Expectation: The early part of this fight, where Pineda was pretty clearly out-grappling Sanchez, was more or less like what I expected the whole thing to be. Sanchez, like a lot of Roufusport guys is just too willing to go to the ground in bad positions. But, I didn’t count on Pineda gassing himself out on the ground and eventually getting overwhelmed by the better conditioned opponent.
• Fallout for Sanchez: He’s still a guy that Bellator is working on long term. I mean, I don’t know that there’s a future out three that includes the idea of Emmanuel Sanchez Bellator Super Star, but he’s on his way to being a consistent main card guy that they use to fill out events and probably will get himself a title shot at some point.
• Fallout for Pineda: He probably fights for Bellator again? I don’t really know.

Linton Vassell (+110) vs. Emanuel Newton (-130) (I picked Vassell, I was right)

• The Expectation: Linton Vassell would outwork Emanuel Newton on the mats for the better part of three rounds, for a decision win. Considering that’s what he did for most of three rounds the first time they fougth, I’m not sure why the odds were against him.
• Fallout for Vassell: He won, but not in a way that’s going to get anyone seriously invested in him as a promotional cornerstone. Still, he’s a guy that can fight Phil Davis or Liam McGeary as a credible opponent in the future, and Bellator needs plenty of those.
• Fallout for Newton: He’s probably not quite gone yet, but Newton is slowly slipping out of relevance with Bellator. His rise to the title came at a point when the division was significantly weaker than where it is today (still weak) as an undersized LHW who is well rounded, but inconsistently dangerous, he’s going to have trouble fighting back up the ranks toward a title shot.

Derek Campos (+230) vs. Melvin Guillard (-300) (I picked Guillard, I was wrong)

• The Expectation: Guillard was supposed to KO Campos in round 1 and then ride off into the sunset on a white stallion… I think that was my prediction.
• Fallout for Campos: It’s a hell of a good win and exactly the right kind of thing for Bellator to use as justification to toss him into the top end of the division for another showcase fight against one of their premiere talents. Maybe a Marcin Held fight or something.
• Fallout for Guillard: The end of the road appears to be coming up fast. Not sure how long Bellator will want to hold on to him if he’s not getting flashy wins.

Kimbo Slice (-180) vs. Dada 5000 (+140) (I picked Slice, I was right)

• The Expectation: I think we all expected a quick, hot mess where Kimbo would get his hand raised. What we got was significantly less hot and significantly more messy.
• Fallout for Slice: 3 minute rounds?
• Fallout for Dada: Cholesterol medication.

Royce Gracie (-105) vs. Ken Shamrock (-125) (I picked Shamrock, I was wrong)

• The Expectation: I thought Shamrock would land a heavy striker or two, Royce would pull guard and then we’d get lots of ugly stalling and maybe some short shots from Shamrock until either he hurt Royce or just rode out an ugly win… Instead we got nothing.
• Fallout for Gracie: Man’s been working on some clinch skills and that knee to the cup is as slick and pretty as ever.
• Fallout for Shamrock: Another bitter chapter.

UFC Pittsburgh

Shamil Abdurakhimov (-123) vs. Anthony Hamilton (-110) (I picked Hamilton, I was wrong)

• The Expectation: Two fighters I was entirely unprepared to trust, but for whatever reason I felt like I should trust Hamilton more. He was coming off a win where he looked at least a little better, and I had it in my mind that he was decently bigger than Abdurakhimov, who looked dwarfed by Timothy Johnson. So I expected Hamilton to grind on Shamil against the cage, maybe pull him down to the ground, and work him over from top position.
• Fallout for Abdurakhimov: Obviously, in light of my expectations, Shamil’s performance was incredibly solid. He lit Hamilton up every time the Jackson-Wink fighter tried to close the distance and then repeatedly blasted him inside. Because of this, Hamilton was forced into the uneasy option of having to spend the fight in open space, where he had very few tools to work with.
• Fallout for Hamilton: Ugly, ugly loss and one that makes it look like he really hasn’t developed any more of the technical tools he needs to rise up the heavyweight ranks. He lost at range, in the clinch and in the pocket and never got anything approaching a wrestling game going. Abdurakhimov is nicely technical, but he’s hardly a division force. That looks pretty bleak for Hamilton.

Lauren Murphy (-330) vs. Kelly Faszholz (+260) (I picked Murphy, I was right)

• The Expectation: Murphy’s experience and superior gas tank were the big factors here, but I was prepared to see her just beat Faszholz up early by getting big takedowns and working top control. That didn’t happen until much later.
• Fallout for Murphy: She really has to figure out how to integrate her wrestling and striking games. Especially since it seems like it takes her a solid round to find her timing standing up, she was kind of shockingly ineffective early in this fight, just because she couldn’t stop herself from standing and trading with someone whose mechanics were sharper. Once she got more comfortable she looked a lot more fluid throwing hands, but it still didn’t lead to much wrestling. And given that top control is where she’s best, a lack of wrestling is a major problem.
• Fallout for Faszholz: She got beat, but if we’re being honest, she looked pretty damn decent losing. Her boxing looked a lot more crisp than it has in the past and she was more competitive in the clinch than she has been before too. Like Murphy, she still needs more of a wrestling game to put her BJJ to better use, but the biggest problem here was that she faded. Not fighting on short notice may be enough to fix that, as her stamina was always pretty decent regionally.

Ashlee Evans-Smith (+160) vs. Marion Reneau (-190) (I picked Reneau, I was sorta wrong)

• The Expectation: I’ll admit, I didn’t really have a clear picture of how this fight would go. I had a reasonable lack of faith in Reneau’s striking (not just from Holm, but Andrade too), and I didn’t think AES would take her down easily. I leaned Reneau, because she’s such an elite athlete and it seemed like the kind of fight where that alone could carry her. I honestly thought it did.
• Fallout for AES: She got a win, and while it’s one I don’t think she deserved at all, she did look a lot better as the fight wore on and she found her range and rhythm striking. When she gets that down, she’s got a pretty decent well rounded skill set going, but until that clicks into place, AES doesn’t have a lot of offensive tools outside the clinch.
• Fallout for Reneau: A loss that really should have been a win and should be treated like one. She’s still a great athlete first and a fighter second, but she’s building a lot of quality tools to work with. Her jab is great, but she doesn’t follow it up enough. Her BJJ is fantastic, but she doesn’t have clear avenues to get to the mat. As her game rounds out she can be a real force, but at the moment, she tends to look a little better than she does. That huge flurry she threw after hurting AES was a prime example. A lot of powerful shots, practically none of which landed.

Nathan Coy (+210) vs. Jonavin Webb (-260) (I picked Webb, I was wrong)

• The Expectation: Webb was supposed to pick up what Danny Roberts was putting down and link up a nice sub when Coy tried to tangle with him on the ground. Maybe Roberts is a better submission fighter off his back, maybe Coy learned a lesson. Either way, Webb got owned on the ground.
• Fallout for Coy: His first UFC win was a long, long time coming. I’m happy for the guy that he finally got there. He’s still a little too one-dimensional for me to see him shooting up the ranks, but he’s good enough in that one dimension to be a very very tough out for some fighters.
• Fallout for Webb: He’s in danger of entering Nicolas Backstrom/Mike Rhodes territory of being a quick bust in the UFC. Webb was something of a hot prospect coming up. A good athlete with an exciting wrestle-grappling style. But it seems like he’s not actually dominant in any one area at the UFC level and is getting pushed out of his comfort zone because of it.

Anthony Smith (-135) vs. Leoanrdo Guimaraes (+110) (I picked Smith, I was right)

• The Expectation: The first round of this fight was exactly what I expected. Smith looked technically clean, cool headed, precise in his strikes, and utterly dominant… And then Leleco didn’t go away… And then Smith started getting wild and getting hit.
• Fallout for Smith: I was going to say that this undercut my hopes of Smith being a strong action fighter for the UFC, but honestly it perfectly encapsulates that role. He has the power and technique to put chinnier fighters away, but the gaps that can be exposed by tougher or more technical opponents. Should make Smith a fun addition to any card he’s on.
• Fallout for Leleco: He’s stupid tough, hits hard, and will probably hang around for a few fights in a division full of guys that meet his same basic qualifications. I don’t see him growing much as his technical game is at the rock bottom end of 185, but he’s definitely tough enough to be there.

Oluwale Bamgbose (+110) vs. Daniel Sarafian (-140) (I picked Sarafian, I was wrong)

• The Expectation: Well, I didn’t pick Bamgbose, so you know already this expectation was going to be wrong. Essentially I assumed that Sarafian was tough enough to survive whatever early onslaught was thrown his way, and once he did that, Bamgbose would be too gassed out to fight effectively for the rest of the bout. He’d probably get taken down or fall off a kick, and Sarafian would blanket him for either a RNC in a scramble or two rounds of stifling. Sarafian didn’t survive.
• Fallout for Bamgbose: Whether or not he’s got the cardio and technique to go deep in fights I still don’t know (and am still skeptical of), but what he has proven is that he can be so immensely dangerous in flashes that he will survive in the UFC long enough to potentially develop those other qualities. And once he does that, he has top 15 fighter written all over him.
• Fallout for Sarafian: It’s hard to feel a bit for fighters like Sarafian. He came to the UFC right as his career should have been prepared to take off, with six years of experience under his belt and a bit of hype for having come through TUF Brazil 1 as a finalist (even if he didn’t end up fighting in the finale). And since then he’s found himself between injuries and between weight classes. Whether it’s physique, style, or just trying to stay healthy, something hasn’t clicked for Sarafian in the UFC. Now at 2-4 in his time under Zuffa, he’s got to be on very thin ice.

Sean Strickland (-115) vs. Alex Garcia (-110) (I picked Strickland I was right)

• The Expectation: A little surprising the odds were dead even here, since it seemed pretty plain that Sean Strickland was going to outwork Alex Garcia to a solid, if slightly uninspiring decision. And while he was well on his way to doing that, he actually managed to hurt Garcia and finish him off!
• Fallout for Strickland: He’s slowly improving, but still not quite tantalizing like might have been hoped when he got to the UFC as a 13-0 22 year old with a bunch of KOs and subs to his name. After a fast start against Bubba McDaniel everything else has just been kinda okay. It was nice to see him get the finish here, but the fight leading up to it was just another solid win. He’s still young, but he’s experienced enough to make me wonder how much of a different fighter we can expect down the road.
• Fallout for Garcia: I don’t want to say he should be better than he is, but that’s absolutely how it feels. He’s got the athletic gifts of a top 10 (maybe even top 5) fighter, and the skill tool box of someone struggling to stay in the promotion. I don’t know if it’s that TriStar doesn’t fit him that well, or if he came to the game too raw, or if he’s just got some other block going on. The UFC is full of big tough, decent fighters like Strickland and it feels like a lot of them will beat Garcia right now.

James Krause (-185) vs. Shane Campbell (+155) (I picked Campbell, I was wrong)

• The Expectation: I was pretty sure Campbell was going to get an upset win here. Really honestly (reasonably) sure of it. He was the better striker (on paper) which Krause has often struggled with. And my faith in Krause’s wrestling and grappling game as something he could consistently rely on was low. Instead Krause put it all together for what are probably the best two rounds of his career.
• Fallout for Krause: On the Krause end of things, I feel like I learned a couple important points from this fight. 1: He is at this point in his career capable of being a consistently technical fighter on the ground and in the clinch. 2: He has a hell of a chin and can push a mean pace. He still ended up flagging before Campbell (which surprised the hell out of me) and ate a lot of shots late in the fight, but his first two rounds of work were damn fine.
• Fallout for Campbell: He gets two points too. The first is that he’s tough as hell and absolutely won’t quit for anyone or anything. The second is that my fears that he’s not athletic enough to be a consistently winning lightweight feel more grounded. There were several points in that bout where Krause just walked through his shots, pushed him to the fence, took him down and out-grappled him. And Krause is a cut below the elite athletically already. Campbell is a fun action fighter, but that may be about it.

Chris Camozzi (-225) vs. Joe Riggs (+185) (I picked Camozzi, I was right)

• The Expectation: Camozzi was probably going to do something unusually violent to Joe Riggs, who started his fighting career way back during the days of Roman Gladiators.
• Fallout for Camozzi: Chris rarely seems to have an athletic advantage these days, but classically, give him an edge and he’ll take it. He has that natural finisher’s instinct, which is to say that when he does something that hurts someone really bad, he knows enough to do it again and again and again until they go away. That probably means he stays outside the top 10, but wins some more fun violent action fights for us.
• Fallout for Riggs: I’m glad he was able to fight his way out of the slave pits back in 140 AD. I’m not going to tell him to “hang ’em up,” that’s not my job, but I will say I’m not really interested in seeing who he can fight next.

Dennis Bermudez (-375) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (+300) (I picked Bermudez, I was right)

• The Expectation: This was all Dennis Bermudez’s fight to lose. He’s as good a wrestler as Crusher and a better striker. As long as he stayed off his back, there wasn’t much chance of him dropping this fight. Despite a rough round 1, that’s pretty much how it played out in the cage.
• Fallout for Bermudez: He’s still a very functional top 10 fighter. You have to be able to crack his chin to beat him, and while that’s not out of the question, it’s not as easy a task as some fighters have made it look. He’s going to be a tough gatekeeper to the very elite for a while yet and given that he’s prone to action brawls, one that should be fun to watch.
• Fallout for Kawajiri: Name value and matchmaking got Kawajiri into the top 15 and to this fight. At this point, his victory over Dennis Siver is his best UFC win, and while that’s solid, it doesn’t make him an obvious elite talent. Kawajiri kind of feels like the featherweight Tibau. If you beat him, you’re probably on the way to the top 15, but not a lot of guys will. And he probably won’t win the right fights to move up in or hold onto his own rankings.

Cody Garbrandt (-450) vs. Augusto Mendes (+325) (I picked Garbrandt, I was right)

• The Expectation: The only question here was, how well would Garbrandt do in a win? Would he drift through a fight he obviously had under control, or would he dominate and finish Mendes like he should. Mendes is a good prospect and not a terrible fighter, but Garbrandt’s advantages standing were huge. He took advantage accordingly.
• Fallout for Garbrandt: he got the win he was supposed to get and he got it the way he was supposed to get it. I’m still unsure of whether or not he’s heading for a loss against Lineker (I think he is), but he’s got that bout re-booked and out ahead of him. I like seeing that he’s spending some time out at other camps than Alpha Male, and this performance puts him right back on track as a fighter streaking to division notoriety.
• Fallout for Mendes: He took the lumps he was destined to take. I would’t read too much into him getting TKO’d in a short notice fight against a strong boxer with good takedown defense like Garbrandt. That was always going to be a rough matchup for him at this stage, and doubly so without a camp for it. And to be extra fair, he did a decent job landing a few shots on Garbrandt before getting starched.

Derek Brunson (-375) vs. Roan Carneiro (+285) (I picked Brunson, I was right)

• The Expectation: I thought it would take longer. Carneiro seemed like the tough, seasoned, and just dangerous enough veteran that would give Brunson enough pause to keep him in safe mode for the better part of this fight. I still thought that version of Brunson would win, I was just surprised he was able to get the opportunity to break Carneiro as quickly as he did Alvey or Houston.
• Fallout for Brunson: Few fighters are as single minded, or as much fun to watch when they smell blood in the water. And unlike a lot of fighters, you don’t even have to be hurt for Brunson to think he’s got you dead to rights. You just have to give him (or let him create) an obvious opportunity to dominate you. You do that, and you’re done. It will be interesting to see how that carries him as he rises up to top 10 competition.
• Fallout for Carneiro: His ranking has always been a weird one. The return debut win he got over Munoz was nice, but that was trending toward a time where Munoz was barely competing with the current middleweight crop. Outside of that, and as much as I like Carneiro’s late career run, he doesn’t have one win to his name that would pick him out as a potential contender, either in middleweight or welterweight. He can be an interesting test for other rising fighters at 185, but I’d be a bit surprised if he stays near the top of the division.

Donald Cerrone (-252) vs. Alex Oliveira (+200) (I picked Cerrone, I was right)

• The Expectation: I’ll be honest, I was surprised at the odds when I saw them. To my way of thinking, this was a fight Cerrone should take care of violently and quickly. Oliveira has just been too wild standing and too wild grappling for me to see him beating someone with the savvy of Cerrone. To Oliveira’s credit he pushed a mean pace on Cerrone early, tagged him up inside, and did his best to make a mess out of the fight before Cerrone could catch on. But, he did, he got the takedown and then a pretty quick (almost academic) submission for an easy win.
• Fallout for Cerrone: He’s on his way to that money-weight class. He may not always win, but his ability to fight on short notice and to take bouts between lightweight and welterweight makes him ideally suited to be “the guy” whenever the UFC needs someone to fill in for a main or co-main event. Fans like him, the UFC generally seems to get along fine with him, and other fighters seem to like him a lot. The guy has everything going for him for as long as he can go out and perform. More’s the power to him.
• Fallout for Oliveira: He lost the fight he was going to lose, and if he’s not careful he risks losing his way out of the UFC. There’s a long history of fighters ending up cut after thinking they did Zuffa a solid by stepping up for and losing short notice fights. Oliveira has potential. He’s big and tough and aggressive and well rounded, but he’s not a technical marvel anywhere. If he tries to jump in over his head like this too often he could end up on a serious skid and find himself out on the regionals for his trouble.

Those are my collected thoughts from last weekend’s mess of fight action. As always, so much of what I wrote seems obvious now, but that’s the benefit of hindsight. Stay tuned for next time around, when I’ll be talking about Anderson Silva, Gegard Mousasi, and the art of winning just to tread water. Until then!

*This week’s quote from the movie The Conqueror Worm.

The MMA Vivisection – Bellator 150: Kongo vs. Queiroz picks, odds, & analysis

It lost the bantamweight title on top and with it a lot of luster, but Bellator 150 this Friday, February 26th in Mulvane, Kansas should still be an fun action card for those that tune in. The main card is stacked with fighters that tend to like to finish fights early (and Chieck Kongo) and that should make for a lot of quick finishes. Besides, what else are you going to do with your Friday night?

That’s what I thought.

And, as always, if you enjoyed the show give us a “Like” over on YouTube. While you’re there, consider subscribing to MMANATIONDOTCOM as well. That way you’ll always be up on the latest Bloody Elbow shows, interviews, and analysis.

If you’re just here for sweet sweet sounds, you can find those over on SoundCloud and iTunes.

Here’s a look at the complete fight card as it stands now:

Spike TV Card

Cheick Kongo vs. Vinicius Quieroz… 32:11

David Rickels vs. Bobby Cooper… 24:36

Kendall Grove vs. Francisco France… 18:06

Gaston Reyno vs. Chuka Willis… 13:35

Lena Ovchynnikova vs. Rebecca Ruth… 9:00

Online Prelims

Chris Harris vs. Julian Marquez

Marcio Navarro vs. Henry Lindsay

Thai Clark vs. Deron Carlis

Manny Meraz vs. Andre Fialho

Jason Witt vs. Jonathan Gary

Brandon Farran vs. Gregory Babene

David Hammons vs. Kyle Noblitt

Welcome to the UFC, Thibault Gouti

It’s always a little surprising to me just how often the UFC ends up needing to go and get a new lightweight fighter for a short notice fight. For a division bursting to the gills with talent, it often seems to lack exactly the right person when needed. For the UFC’s London show, the promotion needed a fighter ready to make 155 on short notice, who also had an EU visa already. Thus, the UFC went out and picked up Thibault Gouti, a competitor from the most recent season of TUF who lost his bout to get into the house. His signing was announced by the promotion last week. So…

Who is Thibault Gouti?

The French lightweight also known as “GT” comes to the UFC training out of Big Team MMA, which I’ll be the first to admit, I can find zero quality info on. He has an overall record of 11-0 with his most recent win being his most notable, a 3rd round KO over former UFC fighter Anton Kuivanen. He also has a quality win over Finnish prospect Mikael Nyyssonen and Spanish regional vet Ramon Boixader. Despite having a strong string of finishes as a pro, Gouti’s record is otherwise made up of cans and .500 fighters. Outside of his two fight stint in Finnish promotion “Cage” I wouldn’t read too much into his fights. Outside MMA, it looks like Gouti has also been a competitive squash player.

What you should expect:

I’m not sure if Gouti has some experience as a boxer as well as in MMA, because he has some really solid fundamentals. He works well behind a jab and even doubles it up on occasion. His hands are relatively fast, he has good power, and his mechanics are pretty decent. His only problem striking is that, because he likes to rely on hand parries to defend (and his defense isn’t amazing) he doesn’t offer much return fire when opponents are throwing punches at him. Every time an opponent strikes he kind of freezes up and tries to figure out how he should defend. And he often gets hit because of it.

His takedown defense is what I’d describe as “single layer” in that he’s got a good sprawl and can stuff an initial shot, but when things get complicated I don’t see him having a lot of secondary answers. Similarly Gouti has shown some signs of a offensive wrestling and grappling game, but given the level of competition most of that came against, and a French rule-set that doesn’t allow for ground-and-pound, I don’t have a lot of faith in those skills translating directly to the UFC. Against his best opponent, Kuivanen, he essentially fought a prolonged boxing match in 4oz gloves, I feel like that’s most indicative of what we’ll see to start his UFC career.

What this means for his debut?

Depending on who you listen to (check out the UFC London Vivisection), Gouti will either win his debut or lose it. Granted there aren’t a lot of tertiary options. But to my mind, his grappling and wrestling are too underdeveloped from the circuit he’s been fighting out of, to go against a bigger more well rounded opponent like Packalen. I realize Packalen isn’t exactly a wealth of experience himself, and is functional but not exceptional everywhere. But I think that Packalen’s wrestling and size will get him the win, especially on short notice. Still, it’s a bit of a coin flip debut.

To get us better acquainted, here’s Gouti’s most recent bout against Anton Kuivanen.

The MMA Vivisection – UFC London: Bisping vs. Silva picks, odds, & analysis

So many thought this day might never come. Anderson Silva is fighting Michael Bisping. Of course, the middleweight title isn’t on the line, as Silva is no longer champion (as he was for so much of Bisping’s prime). But, it’s a bout that’s been on Bisping’s and the UFC’s radars for years. And now it’s finally happening. So, who’s going to win? Who’s going to lose? All that and more can be found in the latest episode of the MMA Vivisection, so check it out.

And, as always, if you enjoyed the show give us a “Like” over on YouTube. While you’re there, consider subscribing to MMANATIONDOTCOM as well. That way you’ll always be up on the latest Bloody Elbow shows, interviews, and analysis.

If you’re just here for sweet sweet sounds, you can find those over on SoundCloud and iTunes.

Here’s a look at the complete fight card as it stands now:

Fight Pass Main Card

Anderson Silva vs. Michael Bisping… 01:33:53

Gegard Mousasi vs. Thales Leites… 01:26:08

Tom Breese vs. Keita Nakamura… 01:23:56

Francisco Rivera vs. Brad Pickett… 01:13:32

Fight Pass Prelims

Mike Wilkinson vs. Makwan Amirkhani… 01:00:24

Davey Grant vs. Marlon Vera… 00:58:21

Scott Askham vs. Chris Dempsey… 00:52:08

Arnold Allen vs. Yaotzin Meza… 00:46:35

Brad Scott vs. Krzysztof Jotko… 00:33:14

Norman Parke vs. Rustam Khabilov… 00:23:32

Daniel Omielańczuk vs. Jarjis Danho… 00:13:54

Teemu Packalén vs. Thibault Gouti… 00:07:15

David Teymur vs. Martin Svensson… 00:03:01

Ronda Rousey wants to help ‘erase the stigma’ around discussing suicide

Ronda Rousey made a splash when she told Ellen that she had some suicidal thoughts after her UFC 193 loss to Holly Holm. But, to hear here tell it now, she never intended her comments to be anything especially earth shattering, just an honest answer as to how losing for the first time in MMA affected her.

TMZ recently caught Rousey for an impromptu interview, where they asked the former UFC champion to elaborate on just why she wants to speak so openly on the topic of suicide:

“There’s a history of suicide in my family. My dad and his father both took their lives and I think that suicide is the no. 1 killer of young teens as well. I do a lot of work with Didi Hirsch, which is a free mental health clinic here in LA. And the last even I went to for them, their whole thing was erasing the stigma… Of taking the stigma away from everything like suicide and making it actually acceptable for people to talk about it and look for help and to not feel like ashamed of themselves for it. I think that should be encouraged.

“It’s not about damning people and I feel like there’s been an overly negative light on that. It’s something real people are going through, not something like a weakness that we should condemn.”

She elaborated on just how caught off guard she was by the whole wave of press her interview caused, as well:

“I’ve never shied away from talking about suicide or anything like that. I mean, it’s really heavily affected our family and anything that I could do to make sure that it affects as few people as possible, I’d be happy to do that. I don’t see why it’s looked at as a bad thing. I only saw how big of a deal it was afterward, I was just being honest. I didn’t know Ellen was going to ask that and I just gave her an honest answer. Now, in hindsight, I’m realizing it’s a lot more abnormal than I thought.”

And, of course, finished the whole thing with a quick look at Holly Holm’s upcoming fight with Miesha Tate, making it clear that she hopes Tate loses, so that nobody beats Holm before she does in their rematch.

At the moment, Rousey is still on hiatus from MMA competition, with no word on when exactly she’s expected to return.

UFC Pittsburgh: Cowboy vs. Cowboy – Fights to make for the main card fighters

I can hear you right now, saying to yourself “I love fight booking articles, but none of them are awesome enough for me.”

Until now, my man. Until now.

That’s right, I’m here to bring you the best in fantasy fight booking for the latest UFC card. This time around I’m looking at the fights that went down in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. To be more precise, the main card fights. But I’ll take a stroll through the prelims to pick up any stray exciting fighters that might be hanging out down there as well. All of this is done by me in an attempt to get on the Shelby/Silva Christmas card list and bring in a little extra yuletide cheer for 2016 (a man can dream).

As that’s the case, I’ll be using the Shelby/Silva method as best as I possibly can. Matching winners against winners and losers against losers and similarly tenured talents against one another. I’m not trying to break the rules here, just provide a look at the best potential fights within them. So, without further ado…

Donald Cerrone: Since his coach is talking like this welterweight move might be long term and since he’s a fight anytime, anyone, anywhere type of cat, Cerrone has a ton of options. If he stays at welterweight, bouts with Matt Brown (win or lose to Maia), Tarec Saffiedine, or Albert Tumenov would all be hot fire. Or he could go back to lightweight and fight Dustin Poirier. Out of all those, I think I’d actually most love to see the Saffiedine fight. Tarec is a seasoned vet whose volume striking style should make for a really fun prolonged battle against Cerrone and something that could make for a technical showcase for both men.

Alex Oliveira: I kind of assume he’s headed right back to lightweight where a fight with Olivier Aubin-Mercier would be pretty solid right now, as he’s the better striker, worse wrestler, and similarly scrappy grappler. However, if he stays at welterweight he should fight George Sullivan.

Derek Brunson: Things are tough at the top of the middleweight division. There are a few decent talents struggling to find purchase and a group of established superstars that demand top PPV billing (which Brunson is unlikely to get). He could fight Robert Whittaker, assuming that Whittaker gets past Rafael Natal at UFC 197, but that would risk derailing one of the two actual rising talents in a division without many. So, the best option may be a fight against the winner of Leites vs. Mousasi. It’s not sexy, but it’s sensible and its either that or the Bisping/Silva winner or Machida when he gets through with Henderson… Leites/Mousasi it is!

Roan Carneiro: The good news for Carneiro is that middleweight is filled with mid-tier guys he can take on for a bounce back fight. I don’t know when Brad Tavares is looking to return, but that would be a great next bout for him to take. Similarly C.B. Dollaway is coming off a crushing loss. And if neither of those fights are available, then fighting Carneiro would be a great opportunity for either Josh Samman or Elias Theodorou.

Cody Garbrandt: Apparently he’s still fighting John Lineker next. Which, I get that’s a sexy action fight, but it kinda reaffirms my feeling that he’s being over-matched, if even off another win it’s the best bout available for him. Maybe Garbrandt steals it, but he might be heading for his first career setback too.

Dennis Bermudez: Charles Oliveira bout, please! That fight would be hot fire and probably end with Bermudez getting subbed, but both guys are so fun and action heavy I’d love to see it. It’d also be a great way to create a little more clarity in the 145 top 15 where a lot of guys are looking for paths to contention. A fight with Brian Ortega would also be acceptable if there’s a reason not to book Oliveira.

Tatsuya Kawajiri: The loser of Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly to get a round robin of grindiest grinders going. Also a fight with Maximo Blanco might be a good time.

Chris Camozzi: I was going to write something about Trevor Smith being a decent fight when he gets back from injury, but then I remembered that Tamdan McCrory was coming off a win. Given how Camozzi looked here, I’d love to see him take on McCrory in a surefire action fight. Camozzi’s path to the top of the division is a long one, but it would be an especially fun way to build McCrory as a highlight action fighter if he can get the win.

James Krause: Krause is such a matchup dependent fighter. I don’t feel like there’s a lot of sense in moving him way up the lightweight ladder, but he can be a great mid-card action fighter/gatekeeper to the upper half of the division. I could see him fighting Leandro Buscape, but I’d rather see him against someone more aggressive and wild. Carlos Diego Ferreira would be a great test of both men and a really fun grappling battle.

Sean Strickland: Sergio Moraes just won his funky fight with Omari Akhmedov, and both he and Strickland have yet to separate themselves from the pack quite the way you would expect. Even though both men are coming of TKO wins, they weren’t exactly the kind of things to get fans hyped for their next fights. Put them together, see if one of the two can keep building momentum slowly, or maybe even put on a show.

Lauren Murphy: Murphy is in a weird place with a 1-2 record that could be 3-0. I think the best fight for her right now would be against another prospect who has had trouble finding breakout form, Germain de Randamie, once de Randamie returns from injury. If that’s too far out into the future, then I’d put her in with Ashlee Evans-Smith off her technical win over Reneau, just to keep both women busy and maybe get one of them an extra push toward bigger bookings.

Other bouts: Tanquinho vs. Guangyou, Campbell vs. Sims, Garcia vs. Akhmedov, Bamgbose vs. Scott/Jotko winner, Smith vs. Dongi, Guimaraes vs. Collier, Coy vs. Anzai, Reneau vs. Kaufman, Faszholz vs. Moras, Abdurakhimov vs. Omielanczuk/Danho winner, Hamilton vs. Pesta