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This weekend looked to be a golden opportunity for top-ranked flyweight Manel Kape. Currently riding a four fight win streak, Kape is one of only a few flyweights ranked inside the UFC’s flyweight top 10 currently coming off a win. The only fighter ranked ahead of Kape riding a W? Iranian talent Amir Albazi.
Albazi came into 2024 as the obvious contender choice, with only an upcoming bout against former champion Brandon Moreno separating him from his first chance at a UFC belt. Unfortunately for the Xtreme Couture talent, a neck injury has forced him out of that fight.
With Moreno now set to face Brandon Royval, their match has become one of men who both have multiple losses to the champion. Safe to say, a win for Manel Kape this weekend could have been huge.
UFC Vegas 84: Manel Kape misses weight by a mile
Instead, Manel Kape stepped on the scales this Friday, January 12th for his rematch against #5 Brazilian flyweight Matheus Nicolau at a whopping 129.5 lbs. That’s a full 3.5 lbs over the flyweight limit—with the one pound non-title fight allowance. More importantly, however, it’s a full 4.5 lbs over title fight weight. For a bout that might have served as an eliminator to the crown, it now looks like an incredibly chancy proposition for the UFC to entrust Kape with a key PPV spot for his next outing, should he get a win on Saturday.
Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that this isn’t the first time Kape has had a big weight miss in the UFC. Around 2.5 years ago, ‘Starboy’ came in at 129 lbs for his bout against Ode Osbourne. Kape was fined 20% of his show purse for the weight miss, and Osbourne accepted the catchweight contest.
Despite the flub, the bout ended up being a turning point for the Angolan-born Portuguese fighter, with Kape winning by highlight flying knee KO. After dropping his first two contests in the UFC, the 30-year old has not lost since.
Nicolau accepts catchweight
On the positive side for Kape, he may have added another massive weight miss to his legacy, but his opponent is once again willing to roll with the lack of professionalism. MMA Mania’s Alex Behunin reports that Nicolau has agreed to a catchweight bout, and will receive 25% of Kape’s show money as a result.
It’s an especially rough situation for Nicolau, given that he’s coming off a loss to Royval and already has a win over Kape in the UFC. Not only is he in need of a bounce-back win, but he’s giving a past opponent an opportunity to avenge a defeat. There’s been some debate out there in the past as to whether or not fighters struggling with a weight cut might not be in fighting shape, but these days we have stronger evidence that any weight advantage going into a bout can be a huge aide to the heavier fighter.
Using a similarly large sample of 708 professional MMA fighters and 1392 professional boxers, researchers found that MMA bout winners gained significantly more body mass after weigh-in than did the bout losers, with each percentage of body-mass increase resulting in a 7% increased likelihood of victory in MMA.
What had been a great chance to bring a little more clarity to the flyweight contender’s circle and, just maybe, create a new challenger for Alexandre Pantoja’s belt now looks more like a fight that will do little beyond treading water. Or perhaps even push Kape out of the division altogether.
UFC Vegas 84 goes down on Saturday, January 13th at the Apex facility in Las Vegas, NV. The card is expected to be headlined by a light heavyweight rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker. Outside of Kape, all other fighters made weight for the event.
UPDATE: Fight cancelled
Despite previous reports that the UFC Vegas 84 co-main event between Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau would go ahead with a 25% fine to Kape’s show purse, promotion officials have since confirmed that the fight has been cancelled.
That makes yet another cancelled fight for Kape, who has seen 8 of his 14 attempted UFC bookings fall apart for one reason or another. Outside of a cancelled 2022 bout against Sumudaerji—where Kape tested positive for Turinabol metabolites—however, this is the only other time that a fight has been cancelled due to an issue involving the former RIZIN champion.
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